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The coming "Age of Abundance", and "Humans Need Not Apply" 
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Post The coming "Age of Abundance", and "Humans Need Not Apply"
So I am being kept up late at night wracking my brain to come up with a solution to the problems presented in this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Pq-S557XQU

and this new article in the Guardian: http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/nov/07/artificial-intelligence-homo-sapiens-split-handful-gods

And another concerning Stephen Hawkings' warnings on the dangers of artificial intelligence: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2907069/Don-t-let-AI-jobs-kill-Stephen-Hawking-Elon-Musk-sign-open-letter-warning-robot-uprising.html

I don't know about you guys, but I find this all quite disturbing. From the data being presented, no one can compete with these new machines. These articles are talking around 45% unemployment in the not so distant future. Is that why the United States has been ramping up it's police forces into paramilitary status? Are they getting ready for the food riots? This sort of thing troubles me greatly, does anyone have any thoughts on the matter?

From what I've seen this is going to make vast swathes of the population totally unnecessary in maintaining peak efficiency of our society.


Last edited by Grayhome on Wed Nov 11, 2015 6:53 am, edited 1 time in total.



Tue Nov 10, 2015 9:45 pm
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Post Re: The coming "Age of Abundance", and "Humans Need Not Appl
Grayhome wrote:
So I am being kept up late at night wracking my brain to come up with a solution to the problems presented in this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Pq-S557XQU

and this new article in the Guardian: http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/nov/07/artificial-intelligence-homo-sapiens-split-handful-gods

I don't know about you guys, but I find this all quite disturbing. From the data being presented, no one can compete with these new machines. These articles are talking around 45% unemployment in the not so distant future? Is that why the United States has been ramping up it's police forces into paramilitary status? Are they getting ready for the food riots? This sort of thing troubles me greatly, does anyone have any thoughts on the matter?

From what I've seen this is going to make vast swathes of the population totally unnecessary in maintaining peak efficiency of our society.
Baxter: we already had robots like this, just using waldos instead of computer vision. Baxter is frankly just a revision on what we already had. Further, proper robots just aren't going to put most of us out of work: because that change-over already happened, and most of the rest moved to China (incidentally, this is why we haven't seen more manufacturing jobs for a long time: all of the new ones go to robots by default).

The bigger problem is in employment differences: everyone expects you to have a degree AND doesn't want to provide on-the-job training.

There are, however, people that are essentially doomed: those who are either too stupid (there are some, my boss was expected to train one until his boss finally came down... and quickly decided it was impossible), or are opposed to thinking. The days of old-style factory jobs are decades gone, because humans were over-kill in the first place.


As for Paramilitary police, no: that's something else, and I suspect that you're overestimating the progression... and underestimating the past (hint: not as rosy as your glasses seem to hint).

And efficiency? If you want to see worker efficiency look to Germany. The US is not as efficient as we could be, starting with working hours: the first 6 are decently efficient, but EVERYONE drops off in hour 7. We just work like that because the institutions are antiquated.


Tue Nov 10, 2015 10:09 pm
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Post Re: The coming "Age of Abundance", and "Humans Need Not Appl
In the "Humans Need Not Apply" video, the analogy is made that humans are like horses in the nineteenth century; machines made them redundant, and their population plummeted when ranchers raised other livestock instead.

The problem with this analogy, of course, is that humans aren't livestock. Almost all businesses depend on human consumers to buy their goods and services, which they can't do if they don't have jobs. The continuing automation of jobs is a problem, but there is a tipping point past which it stops making economic sense to automate. If the projected 45% unemployment were to happen, the economy would be destroyed, and most of these businesses would fail, because there would not be enough consumers to buy their products. So ultimately, there is a limit to how many employees your company can fire before you are obviously cannibalizing your own customer base. Companies like WAL-MART, whose employees represent a not-insignificant percentage of their own customers, are beginning to realize that it's in the company interest to pay their employees a more decent wage, so that they will have enough money to buy the company's products.

Now, that's not the end of the conversation, as it's certainly true that corporations can rarely be relied upon to do the right thing, even when it's in their own long-term interest. And so, public opinion will have to get involved, watchdogging companies that over-automate, in a similar way that current companies can earn a bad reputation for exporting jobs or engaging in exploitative business practices. And ultimately, government intervention is probably inevitable. 45% unemployment would not just be a problem for the unemployed; it would be an economic catastrophe that the government cannot simply stand by and allow, regardless of how committed it is to the principles of the free market.

It won't be easy, but humans are clever creatures. We'll figure it out.

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Tue Nov 10, 2015 10:19 pm
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Post Re: The coming "Age of Abundance", and "Humans Need Not Appl
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Baxter: we already had robots like this, just using waldos instead of computer vision. Baxter is frankly just a revision on what we already had. Further, proper robots just aren't going to put most of us out of work: because that change-over already happened, and most of the rest moved to China (incidentally, this is why we haven't seen more manufacturing jobs for a long time: all of the new ones go to robots by default).


But that's my point, the jobs in CHINA are being replaced by machines. Not even humans operating on the most pitiful of slave wages can compete with these new machines. This new almost totally automated factory in China illustrates the problem: http://www.techrepublic.com/article/chinese-factory-replaces-90-of-humans-with-robots-production-soars/

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There are, however, people that are essentially doomed

That is exactly what worries me, their doom and the ensuing riots. These machines crush their human competition in terms of money, time, efficiency, you name it.


Tue Nov 10, 2015 10:24 pm
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Post Re: The coming "Age of Abundance", and "Humans Need Not Appl
It's not difficult, but it will be unpopular in countries that believe 100% in capitalism (i.e., the US). There's already places experimenting with guaranteed incomes, where you essentially get welfare regardless of your situation. As robots replace low-end workers some will move up and the average workweek will likely drop to a moderate degree, some will find that they can live off of the guaranteed income comfortably and go for that.

People who choose to live on the guaranteed income just don't get a ton of luxury items. If you want your own home with a new car every few years and money to spend you'll have to look for a job that robots can't do. But with free education available that shouldn't be too hard.


Tue Nov 10, 2015 10:52 pm
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Post Re: The coming "Age of Abundance", and "Humans Need Not Appl
In some parts of Chine, the average income has increased to levels which make the investment into robots more than feasible (if they earn half of our wages, a robot is cheaper).
The businesses start moving within China to regions with a lower average income, but missing infrastructure is an issue there.
Once the factories are there, the infrastructure comes to keep them there, with the infrastructure come more jobs, and then the wages increase too.

Their industrialisation and automatisation just happens on a timescale of a few years, instead of several decades, like Europe and the US went through.

If you want to build a new manufacture (factory where the workers build by hand, not by machines), don't go to China. It is too expensive.
Go to Northern Korea, Myanmar, .... You might not like the political situation there, but if the political situation would be different, they wouldn't have such low wages to be interesting for us capitalists...

The issue is that without producing something where consummation happens, you cannot ask the people to pay for the products produces elsewhere, as the consumers don't have a way to pay for the products produced elsewhere.
We should prohibit the import of products produced solely for export.
If a factory in Korea produces for the Korean market in a significant share, and just the excess comes here, we can cope with it. But if the factory exports 100% of its goods, it will be hard to counterbalance that by exporting sufficient stuff to them to pay for the imports.

If the border is open in both directions, you will find something, but if you only produce there, while they do not consume anything from "us", the balance sheet will not equalise.

This will mean that we will have to pay much more for clothing and kids toys.
But then, I prefer my kids toys to survive more than one generation of kids than having to take care when the toy breaks today so that the kid doesn't put the small broken stuff in his mouth and chews/swallows it.

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Wed Nov 11, 2015 3:09 am
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Post Re: The coming "Age of Abundance", and "Humans Need Not Appl
hi hi

There are enough smart people out there to understand what is happening and come up with viable solutions. The question is, will any of those solutions be implemented in time? People don't exactly have a great track record when it comes to taking preventative measures, so I suppose the followup question is, how bad will things get before enough people realize that something needs to be done.


Wed Nov 11, 2015 1:15 pm
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Post Re: The coming "Age of Abundance", and "Humans Need Not Appl
Usually on the level where there are mobs on the streets looting and the army is about to revolt.

People do need jobs and automation will be counter productive if overdone. Humanity is a rowdy species and 'getting' paid to sit down only enhances this due to boredom.

My solution would be to fully forbid automation in certain economic areas, leaving them exclusively in human hands.

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Wed Nov 11, 2015 1:42 pm
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Post Re: The coming "Age of Abundance", and "Humans Need Not Appl
icekatze wrote:
There are enough smart people out there to understand what is happening and come up with viable solutions. The question is, will any of those solutions be implemented in time? People don't exactly have a great track record when it comes to taking preventative measures, so I suppose the followup question is, how bad will things get before enough people realize that something needs to be done.


Well there's already some places taking steps in the right direction, though not necessarily specifically for this reason.

dragoongfa wrote:
People do need jobs and automation will be counter productive if overdone. Humanity is a rowdy species and 'getting' paid to sit down only enhances this due to boredom.

My solution would be to fully forbid automation in certain economic areas, leaving them exclusively in human hands.


I think that boredom will be less of a problem than you think. If a guaranteed income can be set up that provides enough money to afford a console or moderately powerful gaming PC then that's handled.

What areas would you require be left in human hands?


Wed Nov 11, 2015 2:53 pm
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Post Re: The coming "Age of Abundance", and "Humans Need Not Appl
fredgiblet wrote:
dragoongfa wrote:
People do need jobs and automation will be counter productive if overdone. Humanity is a rowdy species and 'getting' paid to sit down only enhances this due to boredom.

My solution would be to fully forbid automation in certain economic areas, leaving them exclusively in human hands.


I think that boredom will be less of a problem than you think. If a guaranteed income can be set up that provides enough money to afford a console or moderately powerful gaming PC then that's handled.

What areas would you require be left in human hands?



I think that you underestimate human restlessness; After I was fired from a job I was in a period where my unemployment benefits allowed me to sit on my ass all day in front of a computer. I literally went crazy from not doing anything, it's a weird mix of a feeling of uselessness and the need to create something tangible. Then there is the whole 'I want to make more money' angle to consider.

What areas would I leave specifically in human hands?

For starters anything that requires human to human interactions. Clerks, cashiers and all that. ATMs and automatic cashiers are faster but this kind of service covers millions of job positions.

Then I would consider if certain jobs in manufacturing could be relegated exclusively to human hands instead of having just a couple of techs overseeing entire manufacturing lines.

I would also consider a total ban on self driving cars, buses and trucks. Millions of jobs there as well.

These of course are from the top of my head but are areas that are on the road for automation and if that happens there will suddenly be hundreds of millions of lost jobs worldwide.

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Wed Nov 11, 2015 3:16 pm
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Post Re: The coming "Age of Abundance", and "Humans Need Not Appl
And who will build the robots? who will design them? We are still a hundred plus years from actual AI. all we have now is really strong search systems. but even those have to have fixed parameters. We can barely have computers do pattern recognition when there is a large body of presorted and identified data. yet the human mind can do pattern recognition thousands of times faster than the current super computers with a much smaller data set of presorted and identified data.

Human are not going anywhere. Your statement is like the 1900's when people were worried if all the people work in manufacturing who will work the farms? Where will we get food?

http://xkcd.com/1601/

is a perfect example.

See self driving cars. not just the good examples but how limited it is even compared to the worst drivers in the world.

Humans don't need to do repetitive jobs. let robots work the manufacturing lines, whether they are building cars, or making you a sandwich at a fast food joint it doesn't matter. it is a stupid wasteful job for a human to do anyways. robots, won't be doing any job without fixed parameters.

Humans create. let the boring mundane stuff be done by machines.


Wed Nov 11, 2015 3:47 pm
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Post Re: The coming "Age of Abundance", and "Humans Need Not Appl
The issue with the paramilitary police is mostly due to a few factors.

The drawdown and 'end' of the two official wars in the Middle East which lead to a surplus of military equipment and other items that were given or sold to state and local law enforcement.

The throwing of money post 9/11 to everyone and everything in the name of security and defense.

Police forces that were built up around the crime increase that stopped in the early 90s.

...or the world of Delta Green is real and we are all gonna die horribly.


Wed Nov 11, 2015 4:15 pm
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Post Re: The coming "Age of Abundance", and "Humans Need Not Appl
Peragrin did you watch the video I posted in the beginning of the thread? It covers both creative and creative jobs, bots can do them both.


Wed Nov 11, 2015 4:57 pm
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Post Re: The coming "Age of Abundance", and "Humans Need Not Appl
fredgiblet
Quote:
I think that boredom will be less of a problem than you think. If a guaranteed income can be set up that provides enough money to afford a console or moderately powerful gaming PC then that's handled.

What areas would you require be left in human hands?


dragoongfa:
Quote:
I think that you underestimate human restlessness; After I was fired from a job I was in a period where my unemployment benefits allowed me to sit on my ass all day in front of a computer. I literally went crazy from not doing anything, it's a weird mix of a feeling of uselessness and the need to create something tangible. Then there is the whole 'I want to make more money' angle to consider.


I agree wholeheartedly with Dragoonfa, I am finally, FINALLY beginning my first job after almost a YEAR of searching after graduation from college. I was going INSANE with boredom and not doing enough meaningful work. I was volunteering at food pantry's, soup kitchens, local libraries, local historical societies and I STILL felt like shit for not earning a wage. Now that I have decent employment and the promise of a pay raise after 30 days of work, I am MUCH more content and MUCH less cabin fever-y.


Wed Nov 11, 2015 5:03 pm
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Post Re: The coming "Age of Abundance", and "Humans Need Not Appl
Arioch wrote:
Companies like WAL-MART, whose employees represent a not-insignificant percentage of their own customers, are beginning to realize that it's in the company interest to pay their employees a more decent wage, so that they will have enough money to buy the company's products.
I'm aware that it's hip to rag on Wal-Mart, but (at least where I live, I wouldn't be surprised if it's different in California due to everything-prices) they already paid better than most of the grocery stores that they put out of business, and those businesses which had figured out a profitable niche (meat is one that I know of) didn't go out of business in the first place. For the uneducated, Wal-mart is one of the few jobs where you can actually get regular raises (at least, that was the case around 9 years ago). The motivation for the $15 an hour wage is more strongly related to getting employees: lots of people don't want to work service jobs (because any customer that you have to attend to has a 90% chance of sucking as a person right then), so to get decent employees to stick around they need to pay more.

Wal-Mart has had negative impacts, but in the region that their corporate management is based in, wages weren't one of them: the only people making a living wage in the businesses they put out of business were the family of the owner, everyone else got paid more at Wal-Mart.


Grayhome wrote:
But that's my point, the jobs in CHINA are being replaced by machines. Not even humans operating on the most pitiful of slave wages can compete with these new machines. This new almost totally automated factory in China illustrates the problem: http://www.techrepublic.com/article/chinese-factory-replaces-90-of-humans-with-robots-production-soars/
And by doing so they discover that quality improves: part of the reason that computers jumped onto USB is that the previous connectors were often much more difficult to properly manufacture, and HAD TO be made by machine: moving cable construction to China moved production away from machines, over to humans.

Also, if you currently want cheap manufacturing, you look to Africa. The Chinese are doing it because African workers are cheaper than Chinese workers.

Grayhome wrote:
Quote:
There are, however, people that are essentially doomed

That is exactly what worries me, their doom and the ensuing riots. These machines crush their human competition in terms of money, time, efficiency, you name it.
The example of a "doomed" worker that I'm talking about was someone who literally thought it was impossible to use a map to navigate an unfamiliar town. My knowledge of him is all second-hand, but basically he was functionally retarded. Apparently he seemed normal when you first spoke with him, but he essentially lacked the ability to learn at anything approaching a normal human pace. Those who cannot learn...


or who refuse to, are the same as those who are doomed. For a time, when the industrial revolution was in full swing and computerization had not yet started working it's way into the real world, jobs were available where some, or even most, employees had little need of mental exertion. As they went, so too went the typing pools (which existed only because typists were taught and practiced in NOT jamming the typewriters), and many others who, to be frank, were little more than disposable minions.


icekatze wrote:
hi hi

There are enough smart people out there to understand what is happening and come up with viable solutions. The question is, will any of those solutions be implemented in time? People don't exactly have a great track record when it comes to taking preventative measures, so I suppose the followup question is, how bad will things get before enough people realize that something needs to be done.
A dooms-day fear based on one interpretation of social security & friends funding shortfalls basically has young workers abandoning work to go live off the land. That's probably about as bad as it can get, and probably not for too long before the politicians accept en-mass that the Rubicon has been crossed, and the assumptions they worked with have ceased to be accurate.


dragoongfa wrote:
What areas would I leave specifically in human hands?

For starters anything that requires human to human interactions. Clerks, cashiers and all that. ATMs and automatic cashiers are faster but this kind of service covers millions of job positions.
Apologize to everyone working the fast-food industry. They don't deserve to subject themselves to the ignominy of customers.

dragoongfa wrote:
Then I would consider if certain jobs in manufacturing could be relegated exclusively to human hands instead of having just a couple of techs overseeing entire manufacturing lines.

I would also consider a total ban on self driving cars, buses and trucks. Millions of jobs there as well.

These of course are from the top of my head but are areas that are on the road for automation and if that happens there will suddenly be hundreds of millions of lost jobs worldwide.
Requiring all self-driving vehicles to be either non-commercial, or have a CDL-licensed maintenance tech ride with the vehicle might be sensible for the first little while, and certainly it should be the case for taxi/bus/etc. vehicles, but baring self-driving consumer vehicles is a little too harsh.


Grayhome wrote:
I agree wholeheartedly with Dragoonfa, I am finally, FINALLY beginning my first job after almost a YEAR of searching after graduation from college. I was going INSANE with boredom and not doing enough meaningful work. I was volunteering at food pantry's, soup kitchens, local libraries, local historical societies and I STILL felt like shit for not earning a wage. Now that I have decent employment and the promise of a pay raise after 30 days of work, I am MUCH more content and MUCH less cabin fever-y.
What are you working in, and what is your degree for?


One thing that I haven't seen mentioned in this entire discussion is the actual employment problems that we have. A couple strike me as biggies:
1) Public education averages miserably enough that a lot of employers require degrees for jobs that should require high school graduation.
2) We don't have enough people going into the trades & engineering.

We are currently staring down the barrel of a gun. The recession pushed it off, but the truth is still inevitable: the Baby Boomers will retire, and we don't have the people to replace them. Self-driving cars, as one example, pose a potential solution if the government proactively goes out, and recruits the newly unemployed to take training as, for example, an electrician. HVAC? From pole to equator, you can find a good wage. Auto mechanics: you don't want to live without them.

We don't just have a looming unemployment issue: we also have a looming retirement issue. These are automatically the best solution for each other.


Wed Nov 11, 2015 7:01 pm
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Post Re: The coming "Age of Abundance", and "Humans Need Not Appl
Absalom wrote:
One thing that I haven't seen mentioned in this entire discussion is the actual employment problems that we have. A couple strike me as biggies:
1) Public education averages miserably enough that a lot of employers require degrees for jobs that should require high school graduation.
2) We don't have enough people going into the trades & engineering.



1. I had a SSgt a teacher back when I was a cadet for a bit when I was in college. He put public education in the US as an organization that is there to make good citizens, not good students.
2. I remember hearing stuff like this on NPR. It was kinda one of the influences of why I started an apprenticeship.
http://www.npr.org/2014/08/06/338011367 ... ed-workers
http://www.npr.org/2013/01/17/169611619 ... are-scarce


Wed Nov 11, 2015 7:27 pm
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Post Re: The coming "Age of Abundance", and "Humans Need Not Appl
The fundamental problem is that people have been socialised, raised, and more or less brainwashed into thinking that if they're not employed gainfully then they are worthless. Their entire life has been distilled down into how large a paycheck they can take home and when that goes bye bye so does all meaning, self worth, and self respect.

It made sense to have this mentality where if you didn't work you'd starve to death or vital jobs would go unfilled, but that's going to become less and less true as time goes by and automation reduces the number of absolutely essential jobs that need to be done by human hands. Mandating jobs that must be filled in by humans is not a long term solution, it's a stopgap one at best and more or less becomes economic self sabotage over any period of time, especially if someone finds a proper solution to the problem.

What needs to happen is that society needs to shift its values system over from one where people are only valuable if they're working to one where people are valuable period. That kind of values shift takes time and not the least because people have to want to change those values in the first place. The people who derive their worth from how much money they've made for themselves are not going to be very interested in shifting values away from monetary based self worth, and welfare is a dirty word where power brokers are concerned. Couple this with almost zero corporate taxation, and there are even bureaucratic obstacles, since most taxes are collected from the poor and middle class there will be an incentive to keep them working, rather than raise corporate taxation.

Personally, I'd fix the 'problem' by instituting a basic income guarantee, raising corporate taxation, and changing societal values away from monetary based self worth. None of those are easy to implement. There's very little political will to do any of it and a lot of it will be characterised as bleeding heart leftism. What's likely to happen is strong man politics and meaningless slogans. Nothing actually productive will happen, and by the time anyone thinks to act it will be somewhat too late. You'll get a lost generation as society adjusts to the new and inevitable reality.

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Wed Nov 11, 2015 8:44 pm
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Post Re: The coming "Age of Abundance", and "Humans Need Not Appl
Since it's inception in 1987, the Docklands Light Railway has had three incidents. One was a bombing. Another was a collision, and another had a train crash through buffers and end up handing off the end of an elevated section of track.

In both of the crashes, a human was driving the trains. Why is this important? Because normally, DLR trains are automated. They have never had a crash caused by the computer control systems.

Automating vehicles can greatly increase the safety of passengers and bystanders. But some of you would have self-driving buses and taxis banned... because it would mean the drivers lose their jobs?

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Wed Nov 11, 2015 9:57 pm
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Post Re: The coming "Age of Abundance", and "Humans Need Not Appl
dragoongfa wrote:
I think that you underestimate human restlessness; After I was fired from a job I was in a period where my unemployment benefits allowed me to sit on my ass all day in front of a computer. I literally went crazy from not doing anything, it's a weird mix of a feeling of uselessness and the need to create something tangible. Then there is the whole 'I want to make more money' angle to consider.


To your anecdote, an anecdote. I was unemployed for the better part of a year and loved it. I don't have nearly as much time as I want to play games and consume other media.

Also you NEED to make money. If you got a guaranteed income that desire to make more might have faded.

Quote:
For starters anything that requires human to human interactions. Clerks, cashiers and all that. ATMs and automatic cashiers are faster but this kind of service covers millions of job positions.

Those are also some of the worst jobs that have the shittiest interactions.
Quote:
Then I would consider if certain jobs in manufacturing could be relegated exclusively to human hands instead of having just a couple of techs overseeing entire manufacturing lines.

Eh, could work, but reduces efficiency dramatically.
Quote:
I would also consider a total ban on self driving cars, buses and trucks. Millions of jobs there as well.

God no. Do you have any idea how many accidents we can prevent by switching to mostly self-driving cars? Almost every accident that occurs is ultimately due to human error.


Wed Nov 11, 2015 11:47 pm
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Post Re: The coming "Age of Abundance", and "Humans Need Not Appl
hi hi

Quote:
A dooms-day fear based on one interpretation of social security & friends funding shortfalls.
It is happening right now. People are dying.

(In 2013, Wal-Mart had a lower acceptance rate than Harvard.)

In any case, there is a strong sentiment that if people don't work for a living, that they will become lazy, but the science of human motivation does not support that assertion.


Thu Nov 12, 2015 12:15 am
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Post Re: The coming "Age of Abundance", and "Humans Need Not Appl
Grayhome wrote:
Peragrin did you watch the video I posted in the beginning of the thread? It covers both creative and creative jobs, bots can do them both.

Bots can't do the creative jobs. They can only do what they are programed too. put a puzzle that isn't in their library before them and a bot can't solve it.

build a bot to solve a rubix cube.(easy it can be done with legos). Now build a bot that can solve a rubix cube, but don't tell it the answer or what to look for. Just give it the intrustction match up the colors on each side.

answer there is no bot that can do it. We are decades away from making a machine thinking like that at best. Even IBM watson requires a friggin building worth of computing tech to beat a human at jeopardy. So called machine learning is a joke. you can't give a machine a text book and have it understand what it is learning. it just memorizes the facts it contains and can't think creatively on how to apply those facts in non standard ways.

Will we get there eventually with AI maybe. but most people don't realize how complex the quantum interactions are in our heads. We can't build a trinary computer yet. bots doing actual creative thinking won't happen.


Thu Nov 12, 2015 4:39 am
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Post Re: The coming "Age of Abundance", and "Humans Need Not Appl
This video is fascinating Icekatze! "Drive: The surprising truth about what motivates us"
Do you have anything else like this?


Thu Nov 12, 2015 4:41 am
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Post Re: The coming "Age of Abundance", and "Humans Need Not Appl
fredgiblet wrote:
God no. Do you have any idea how many accidents we can prevent by switching to mostly self-driving cars? Almost every accident that occurs is ultimately due to human error.


@RedDwarfIV

The odds of a car accident are extremely low as they stand now, less than one in a thousand, would be less that one in ten thousand if third world countries weren't counted. The economic damages and impoverisation that would follow the automation of the auto industry far outweigh the costs of the accidents.

EDIT: Expanding on this thinking a bit:

Beyond unstable societies that have serious safety issues, cars are pretty safe already. Yes humans cause most of the accidents in safe societies but those accidents are the exception. The problem in fully automating cars, buses, trucks doesn't just mean that the drivers loose their jobs but all of the directly related industries also loose their prime money income.

In the US there are approximately 3.5 million truck drivers and the related industries employ at least an other 5 million people. That's 8.5 million jobs that will be lost if automated trucks become a thing for safety concerns.

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Thu Nov 12, 2015 5:39 am
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Post Re: The coming "Age of Abundance", and "Humans Need Not Appl
dragoongfa wrote:
In the US there are approximately 3.5 million truck drivers and the related industries employ at least an other 5 million people. That's 8.5 million jobs that will be lost if automated trucks become a thing for safety concerns.


You're coming from the assumption that we MUST keep people employed. I'll agree that our current cultural norms require that, but I don't agree that it's universally true. I don't think it's even difficult to come up with a system that allows people to be unemployed without serious consequences.


Thu Nov 12, 2015 12:06 pm
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Joined: Mon Jan 26, 2015 2:00 pm
Posts: 1065
Location: Athens, Greece
Post Re: The coming "Age of Abundance", and "Humans Need Not Appl
fredgiblet wrote:
dragoongfa wrote:
In the US there are approximately 3.5 million truck drivers and the related industries employ at least an other 5 million people. That's 8.5 million jobs that will be lost if automated trucks become a thing for safety concerns.


You're coming from the assumption that we MUST keep people employed. I'll agree that our current cultural norms require that, but I don't agree that it's universally true. I don't think it's even difficult to come up with a system that allows people to be unemployed without serious consequences.


That's the definition of Utopic. There is no way to have any number of people rendered content through benefits without any form of economic return for the one giving the benefits. People want an infinite amount of stuff, it's human nature. The more someone has at their disposal the more they will desire.

Give someone enough benefits for food, they will want more benefits for clothing, give them clothing and they will want housing, give them housing and they will want cars, give them cars and they will want entertainment, give them entertainment and they will want better food...

Humans are never content if they are only given. The only way for someone to be content with their wants is to put obstacles in their wants and the best system for that is to have them put to work for what they want.

Keeping humans employed is the only way a human system will ever work without collapsing either from overwhelming material demand or violence.

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Thu Nov 12, 2015 12:37 pm
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