Logistics and Trickery, the Only Resort

Discussion regarding the Outsider webcomic, science, technology and science fiction.

Moderator: Outsider Moderators

Post Reply
UristMcNeolib
Posts: 1
Joined: Fri Oct 16, 2020 7:02 am

Logistics and Trickery, the Only Resort

Post by UristMcNeolib »

Even a cursory glance at the statistics for Terran weapons and ships reveals them to be about as useful in set piece battle against the Loroi or Umiak as a pre-dreadnaught against a supercarrier.

But to take this analogy entirely too far, a supercarrier has very high operational costs and severe logistical requirements compared to a pre-dreadnaught. And the vast distance between Earth and the territory of either major power makes an assault on the humans a very expensive one - the ships involved will require massive supply stores and be useless for the duration of the transit.

Extracting appreciable resources from the humans requires sending convoys (which have to be guarded) through unfamiliar territory. And since this is a long route that takes you through fringe territories, you have to worry about hostiles (if near contested territory, the enemy; if far from civilization, space pirates). Now, the convoys themselves better have something valuable, and raw resources almost certainly won't cut it given the logistics involved. Nuclear isotopes might be used, but do you really want your new subjects producing massive quantities of fissile material in which a thermonuclear device to scuttle your valuable transport ship might be hidden?

So your best bet is to give them manufacturing blueprints and help them work their way up to producing finished goods for you, but then you have to worry about giving far-flung disloyal subjects advanced technology that they might one day turn against you - and remember, your lines of communication are very, very tenuous so it will take months for word of a rebellion to reach your central military command.

And if you don't want to be bled dry supplying this outpost in the middle of nowhere, you need to locally synthesize antimatter. Which means either giving away this potent tech to the locals or establishing an expensive colony to synthesize it yourself (and still give the locals a fighting chance at stealing your precious tech through clever espionage).

This situation is even worse for munitions, which you really want to have against any incursions from your rival, so they can't just steal your new outpost from you. The Umiak, in particular, probably have to bring along a massive cargo of torpedoes in their supply vessels. The Loroi don't have that particular worry, but their ships are fuel-inefficient vis-a-vis the Umiak, so they have to tow along twice as much antimatter.

Supply ships are likely to be relatively slow, filled with highly volatile (antimatter for fuel and explosives) material, and weakly armored. In short: their escorts must be paranoid and take a "shoot first, ask questions later" attitude. They should be easily provoked into massive retaliation against a perceived threat.

And the enemy is unfamiliar with your technology and weaponry (I doubt the Historian construct, the only alien with such knowledge, will be sharing much with the Loroi or Umiak in this regard), they will have an even bigger incentive for trigger-happiness.

The enemy will be curious as to your tech. Leave derelict space probes or freighters near jump points in the long route to Eridani (the only reliable entry point to your system). Set them to detonate thermonuclear devices when a sufficiently large target gets sufficiently close. Build the tension as much as you can. Maybe even have what appears to be an abandoned facility on a barren stellar object fire a single, powerful laser beam at the enemy supply vessel, not with any realistic hope of destroying it, but in the hopes of building MOAR PARANOIA.

And when the enemy does arrive at Eridani, have a division or three of fake ships - hollow, but opaque-to-sensors "vessels" with minimal drive systems and some puny dime store armaments (bottom barrel mass drivers, weak torpedoes that are little more than flashy nuclear fireworks, etc). When the enemy arrives in the system, filled with trigger-happy paranoia, they will instantly go into evasive maneuvers and start firing (both actions burning up fuel). If they're the Umiak, they probably throw a lot of torpedoes at you, too.

If you really want to screw with them, have a few thousand nukes with minimal propulsion capabilities lying around the jump point detonate. No damage intended. You just want to freak them out with more fireworks and make them think you're shooting something real at them.

And leave lots more of them lying around. Include a couple dozen real torpedoes, so if the enemy gets complacent you can try to rush a ship or two. If you have 20,000 cheap nuclear devices and 100 real torpedoes that all "deploy" from asteroids and space junk in your system but don't actually launch or detonate until properly provoked (ie someone gets close enough for a real torpedo to rush at them), your enemy will want to shoot all of them. More antimatter fuel wasted.

And use real railguns mounted on random asteroids! They don't need to hit the enemy to force them to keep accelerating or decelerating. You just want to make them burn more fuel.

Now eventually, they will get wise. They'll properly respond and avoid burning too many resources against you. But how much of their supply did they actually waste at your farthest outpost? Probably a lot more than they'd like. And they still have no idea regarding the disposition of your real fleet, in numbers or location.

A prudent officer might well pull back.If they do not, then you've carefully left a few (powered off and decently hidden) combatants in each system and if they try to run a cargo ship through you try to attack it. Even in the likely event you can't damage them, you raise their paranoia and suddenly they feel compelled to sweep every corner of the systems they've attacked for potential foes. Every piece of sufficiently large space debris might seem a threat (again, even sniping ineffectually at a cargo vessel with mass drivers may worry them, because it means there are enemies in their rear).

So they waste more and more fuel sweeping systems of enemies. And you keep trying to provoke the use of moar fuel and munitions.

The goal is to force them to do one of two things:
(a) They retreat. You win.
(b) They go straight for your capital planet in your capital system with depleted munitions and depleted fuel reserves. Their maneuverability is constrained and so is their willingness to shoot and their ability to use torpedoes. You keep your best real combat vessels, and lots of cheap AI-piloted empty shells in your home system. Your goal is to get them to rush you blindly and get close enough to your real ships (remember, they don't know for sure what is and isn't the space equivalent of a rubber tank) for you to inflict serious damage.

If you are very lucky, they lose. This is unlikely. If you are somewhat lucky, they take enough damage to be forced to choose between losing their entire strike force (with no ability to properly communicate what happened back to headquarters) while annihilating you (because they have expended way too much fuel to return home, and you can use nukes on any ground forces that try to forage on land - yes, they can annihilate you, but you can deny meaningful resupply) and the other option: negotiating your surrender on favorable terms to you.

This is far from a surefire plan, but a focus on extreme supply-focused attrition to produce a single costly battle at the end, while desperate, does seem effective at pretty thoroughly ruining the enemy's ability to properly subjugate you fully. They can annihilate you, yes, but this offers considerable incentive for a mild tributary status, given the limited resources they could extract from you even with total control of your system (simply on account of the vast distances involved, and the fact that any cargo vessels will have to pass through dangerous territories).

Anyhow, at least it is a plan, right?

QuakeIV
Posts: 209
Joined: Fri Jul 24, 2020 6:49 pm

Re: Logistics and Trickery, the Only Resort

Post by QuakeIV »

I think it was established that mines and such aren't very effective in this universe due to the very low range of combat, meaning stuff scattered around in a solar system will struggle to actually drift into range of anything. The longest range weapons can barely reach from the earth to the moon (which was pointed out specifically to contradict the idea of a fortified moon), that sort of thing.

User avatar
Werra
Posts: 840
Joined: Wed Jun 06, 2018 8:27 pm

Re: Logistics and Trickery, the Only Resort

Post by Werra »

Supply considerations cut both ways. Without the ability to defend her core territories at all, mankind will not be able to maintain any sort of presence in space. All a potential aggressor with this much of a lead needs to do is to station a few ships in any habitated human system and that's it. They can control any space faring asset humanity has at her disposal.
If the aggressor were to expend even the most minor of efforts into orbital bombardment, mankind would quickly become incapable of keeping alive most of her people. Humans are simply too far behind for any kind of defense to be viable.

CaptEndo
Posts: 12
Joined: Tue Sep 22, 2020 7:40 pm

Re: Logistics and Trickery, the Only Resort

Post by CaptEndo »

Humanity controls a lot of systems without terrestrial colonies. We know Eridani is the closest of the Six Worlds to the conflicting powers, but that doesn’t mean we couldn’t set up orbitals and buffer zones in the systems that lead to and from it. The best course of them all would be to negotiate a relationship with the only power that would likely leave us our own sovereign status before they get here! Strategists in the TCA have no way of knowing who or even if that option exists. Only our intrepid Scout knows that for the moment ( and he’s not certain of that)!

Mk_C
Posts: 198
Joined: Sun Jul 26, 2020 11:35 am

Re: Logistics and Trickery, the Only Resort

Post by Mk_C »

Cool username, alud.
UristMcNeolib wrote:
Fri Oct 16, 2020 9:40 am
Even a cursory glance at the statistics for Terran weapons and ships reveals them to be about as useful in set piece battle against the Loroi or Umiak as a pre-dreadnaught against a supercarrier.
Probably worse.
UristMcNeolib wrote:
Fri Oct 16, 2020 9:40 am
And the vast distance between Earth and the territory of either major power makes an assault on the humans a very expensive one - the ships involved will require massive supply stores and be useless for the duration of the transit.
Partially correct - Sol's distance from either combatants is it's best defense so far, but:
1. It doesn't take a massive fleet of Union or Hierarchy ships to dunk on the TCA fleet and cripple Earth (and you don't need to cripple anything else, without support from Earth the rest of human worlds would be too busy struggling to survive to pose any threat). It can be done by a very limited force with some buffed-up supply train. Umiak have more ships then they know how to effectively apply, and even Loroi could spare Sunfall's forces in 2141 to help Tithric enter history as the first contemporary spacefaring species to be driven to the brink of extinction. Providing similar assistance to humans would be even easier. Just Stillstorm and 51st with a few fuel ships would be enough to send humanity 100 years back and make us completely harmless and useless for the rest of the war, by decimating our space infrastructure. Add in a siege vessel with mass drivers or two, and the Storm Witch can send us right back into the Stone Age.
2. Umiak are encroaching towards human space, fast - this is why Orgus had to flee. By the time any elaborate defensive scheme by the TCA can be realized, Umiak will have bases of operation right next door. And Loroi forces are light enough on baggage train as it is, plus they know exactly where Sol is, which would make things a little bit easier.

The main use of Sol's remote location for us in this situation is making it so neither side can crush us like insects with minimal effort as they are passing by pounding each other, as it happened with Tithric, but not much more.
UristMcNeolib wrote:
Fri Oct 16, 2020 9:40 am
Extracting appreciable resources
If humans are too far to be conveniently accessed, then they are too far to be conveniently exploited, and if either side sees them as a threat then the safe bet is just quick glassing.
If humans are close enough to be conveniently exploited, then they are close enough to be conveniently accessed, so home-ward shipping would not be a huge issue.
UristMcNeolib wrote:
Fri Oct 16, 2020 9:40 am
The Loroi don't have that particular worry, but their ships are fuel-inefficient vis-a-vis the Umiak.
They are?
UristMcNeolib wrote:
Fri Oct 16, 2020 9:40 am
Supply ships are likely to be relatively slow, filled with highly volatile (antimatter for fuel and explosives) material, and weakly armored.
Type-A fuel is not literally antimatter - it's specifically much safer to store and transport.
UristMcNeolib wrote:
Fri Oct 16, 2020 9:40 am
In short: their escorts must be paranoid and take a "shoot first, ask questions later" attitude. They should be easily provoked into massive retaliation against a perceived threat.
They don't need a massive retaliation - their job is protecting the transports, not engaging and exterminating the enemy. Once the enemy is established to be powerless to harm the transports, either through getting shot up to hell from superior ranges or through even the slowest transports having so much mobility advantage that they can run circles around said enemy's forces, it's no use wasting time and munitions on this enemy.
UristMcNeolib wrote:
Fri Oct 16, 2020 9:40 am
And the enemy is unfamiliar with your technology and weaponry (I doubt the Historian construct, the only alien with such knowledge, will be sharing much with the Loroi or Umiak in this regard), they will have an even bigger incentive for trigger-happiness.
Loroi have studied the wreck of Bella, and even with a cursory glance by 51st's tactical analysts, they can deduce that the best long-range scouts TCA could muster for a vital mission are shiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiit by their standarts. And Umiak can deduce as much from the very first encounter they'll have with human vessels.
UristMcNeolib wrote:
Fri Oct 16, 2020 9:40 am
The enemy will be curious as to your tech. Leave derelict space probes or freighters near jump points in the long route to Eridani (the only reliable entry point to your system). Set them to detonate thermonuclear devices when a sufficiently large target gets sufficiently close.
Unless it's shielded to all hell, active material can be easily detected even with contemporary means, much less Loroi or Umiak sensors. Nobody is bringing any human salvage booby-trapped with thermonuclear devices aboard, you're wasting more time and effort by laying the traps.
UristMcNeolib wrote:
Fri Oct 16, 2020 9:40 am
Build the tension as much as you can. Maybe even have what appears to be an abandoned facility on a barren stellar object fire a single, powerful laser beam at the enemy supply vessel, not with any realistic hope of destroying it, but in the hopes of building MOAR PARANOIA.
It's not paranoia when you are cautious against a force that persistently acts in dangerous and erratic manner. To anyone with half a brain this will look not as something that requires a massive overthinking and overreacting, but as a weak and cornered foe going bonkers with desperate ruses (which is exactly what it is).
UristMcNeolib wrote:
Fri Oct 16, 2020 9:40 am
And when the enemy does arrive at Eridani, have a division or three of fake ships - hollow, but opaque-to-sensors "vessels" with minimal drive systems and some puny dime store armaments (bottom barrel mass drivers, weak torpedoes that are little more than flashy nuclear fireworks, etc).
Seeing as you need to get them to Eridani in the first place, and they have to be able of getting there, it won't be much easier than building a similar force of actual, functional ships - as much as you can consider contemporary TCA ships "functional".
UristMcNeolib wrote:
Fri Oct 16, 2020 9:40 am
When the enemy arrives in the system, filled with trigger-happy paranoia, they will instantly go into evasive maneuvers and start firing (both actions burning up fuel).
Why would they? We saw a Loroi strike group getting jumped by an actual greatly superior force twice in the plot already - neither time did any of the sides started expending their combat capabilities by going full retard, even when they didn't know the full extent of what they are facing (like when Stillstorm was beset by the Stray hiding in the proplyd in Naam). Loroi have acted in a directed and efficient manner, and so did the Hierarchy forces. After all, there is this thing called "recon", where you send some minor, mobile forces ahead to scout things out and probe the opponent's capabilities. Like the Stray did with 51st sitting on Bella's wreck.
UristMcNeolib wrote:
Fri Oct 16, 2020 9:40 am
If you really want to screw with them, have a few thousand nukes with minimal propulsion capabilities lying around the jump point detonate. No damage intended. You just want to freak them out with more fireworks and make them think you're shooting something real at them.
It's SPEHHS. Things don't lie around in SPEHHS - they either maintain a stable orbit around some gravity well or they fall down said gravity well. Things like jump-zone outposts have to continuously expend fuel to maintain their positions around said jump zones - and so will those "mines". Meaning you'll need a separate mobility drive and fuel supply for said mines, and probably someone on board to maintain them, aaand it's basically already a shitty torpedo-carrying space fighter. And thing that has to lay them in place is effectively a shitty carrier. The only difference is said carrier deploys it's wing in advance for some reason.
UristMcNeolib wrote:
Fri Oct 16, 2020 9:40 am
And leave lots more of them lying around. Include a couple dozen real torpedoes, so if the enemy gets complacent you can try to rush a ship or two. If you have 20,000 cheap nuclear devices and 100 real torpedoes that all "deploy" from asteroids and space junk in your system but don't actually launch or detonate until properly provoked (ie someone gets close enough for a real torpedo to rush at them), your enemy will want to shoot all of them. More antimatter fuel wasted.
Or, you know, probe it out with a scouting force, and upon discovering that even a couple frigates can chew through this sort of a defense with ease - steamroll through it with minimal effort.

UristMcNeolib wrote:
Fri Oct 16, 2020 9:40 am
And use real railguns mounted on random asteroids! They don't need to hit the enemy to force them to keep accelerating or decelerating. You just want to make them burn more fuel.
You don't need a lot of fuel to evade clearly visible projectiles flying towards you at a tiny fraction of c from multiple light-minutes away - you only need to shift your trajectory by force of a literal hand's push and it all misses, unless it is frantically saturating space with literally hundreds of billions of projectiles. You do, however, need a shitton of fuel and resources to set up the guns firing said projectiles all over the place. And if they are not engaging from light-minutes away - then they are ridiculously easy to simply evade. Just make your transition trajectory into a sloping oversun (which is probably how trans-system flight towards opposite jump-zones works anyway - it's the next best thing to a straight line when said straight line goes through a star) and voilà! Your entire path passes millions and millions of kilometers away from even the nearest asteroid emplacement. And the opposition is too slow to even try and intercept you.
UristMcNeolib wrote:
Fri Oct 16, 2020 9:40 am
But how much of their supply did they actually waste at your farthest outpost?
Probably not much.
UristMcNeolib wrote:
Fri Oct 16, 2020 9:40 am
Anyhow, at least it is a plan, right?
Hardly. As many other doomed plans, it hinges entirely on the enemy predictably behaving in a certain way, and this way being that of an idiot. Why would the invader overextend and waste itself through overthinking and paranoia, instead of cautiously testing out human defences and plowing through them easily once they how pathetic they are? It would be a fair claim if humans could give them actual good reasons to be paranoid - like having at least some capability to effectively engage, harass and destroy the invading forces, and letting them know that we possess said capabilities. But we don't have them, we can't even fake having them. While the invader, whichever side they happen to be, has centuries of experience in steamrolling weaker civilizations. Given Union's track record with Mannadi, Arekka, Delrias and Tithric, and Hierarchy's with Jilaad, Lurs and Orgus - they both know more of such desperate tricks and tactics (and how not to fall for them) than we can imagine. Only most of those were actually stronger than humans currently are when they got fucked.

As such, this plan of resistance is worse than not fighting at all.

I think Alex did a good job of reading the writing on the wall even just from Orgus hearsay on page 95:
A. Jardin wrote: Captain, if the diplomatic mission fails, I don't believe all the training in the world is going to make a damn bit of difference.
There are people in the TCA whose job is to consider and predict all the options that humans have for any kind of defense against a superior invader. And the kid who's already beat some of the best of them at their own game plainly told us that it's all trash. I think we have no reasons not to believe him.

Also, this:
Werra wrote:
Sat Oct 17, 2020 10:32 am
Supply considerations cut both ways. Without the ability to defend her core territories at all, mankind will not be able to maintain any sort of presence in space. All a potential aggressor with this much of a lead needs to do is to station a few ships in any habitated human system and that's it. They can control any space faring asset humanity has at her disposal.
If the aggressor were to expend even the most minor of efforts into orbital bombardment, mankind would quickly become incapable of keeping alive most of her people. Humans are simply too far behind for any kind of defense to be viable.

Post Reply