Galactic Scholar wrote:
Do you think the existence of Humanity will have a destabilizing or stabilizing effect upon the Loroi Empire at this critical time? Destabilizing
Does humanity occupy valuable territory that would allow one side or another to flank their opponent? Yes
Do the Loroi have a positive or negative reputation? Negative
As a followup, Do you think it likely or unlikely for them to care about further damage to their reputation,
especially if it means winning the war? Or even a chance of winning the war? Unlikely
Have you played Master of Orion? Specifically are you familiar with Master of Orion's bio weapons and their ability to eliminate planetary populations without destroying valuable planetary structures? There are many ways to commit genocide.
Do you think it an unreasonable possibility for the Loroi to attempt to use bio-weapons on humanity in an effort to win the war? Slaying 25 billion (potentially very troublesome!) aliens no one has heard of before to save the lives of their own people, whom they are sworn to protect?
That's basically my thought process on the matter. Just a potential future, it would certainly be dramatic!
Humanity being the Loroi's template species will likely shake things up for the Loroi on a propaganda and existential front, but the day to day line officer or factory worker is unlikely to be affected by such matters. Politics will shift, the narrative of the war will change, but life for the average Loroi will go on.
What strikes me as just as likely to occur is for the Umiak to be as shaken by this as anyone else. A lot of their propaganda and motivation for the war is based on the Loroi being the inheritors of the Soia, whom they view as enslavers. If it turns out that the Loroi are just another copy-cat species, then their justification for war goes out the window entirely. Indeed, if the Loroi are smart they can spin this to their advantage by turning the Umiak's own narrative against them, since the Loroi are victims of Soia experimentation too.
The value of human territory is debatable, I think, and has been discussed before. Human territory lies at the far end of a vast gulf of empty and undeveloped systems. Any attempt to get there requires a very long logistical train, followed by yet another long logistical train to strike at the flanks of Umiak territory. Historically this is known as the tyranny of distance and makes both attacking and utilising human territory a problem for either side of the conflict. It's not an insurmountable problem, as humans did manage to make the journey after all, but given the resource demands of the war, it's a gamble that has a very serious fail state.
The reputation of the Loroi is not so negative as one would think, else one would need to consider how they maintain their military alliances. A lot of what humans know about the Loroi, prior to contacting them, came from the Orgus, who lived on the Umiak side of the front lines. No doubt they were fed a significant amount of propaganda to paint the Loroi in the worst possible light, disregarding the good and accentuating the negative heavily.
Now I'm not saying that everything bad said about the Loroi are lies. The best kind of propaganda after all is propaganda that is true. But reputation matters for the maintenance of military alliances. Genociding the Tithric certainly cost the Loroi political capital, but their allies could likely see the hard calculus that drove that decision. Failing to remove that front from the war would have resulted in more than just Loroi worlds being raided and bombed, and if it ever comes down to it, most species will want to prioritise their own survival over that of someone else. Thus the case for a Tithric genocide can get a grumbling pass from the Loroi's allies, whilst the Mannadi situation precipitated a political intervention to end it.
That being said, there are two possible cases for a human genocide at the hands of the Loroi. The first is if humanity remains undeclared for the Umiak, the other if they do declare for the Umiak. There is a third 'possible' scenario where humans declare for the Loroi but get genocided anyway, but that requires the Loroi to behave like raving lunatics and will not be considered.
In the case of humans being undeclared for either side, we can see that the costs of doing such are beyond the pale for the Loroi. The distance is far, meaning they'd need to draw off critical logistical and military assets in order to prosecute such a genocide. They'd need enough force to subjugate human naval resources whilst having the fire power necessary to ward off any possible Umiak intervention, whilst also having the necessary logistics to feed, clothe, fuel and arm their vessels for the duration of a protracted extermination campaign in largely unknown systems they don't have maps for. I'd project that they'd need 1 - 3 years to eliminate major human resistance, with 5 - 10 years to ensure that they hit every outpost and intercepted every vessel.
Their allies, knowing humans exist thanks to the Barsam Courier and the Historian Representative, will almost certainly find out that a plan to carry out said genocide is underway, and this in turn will split the Loroi Union. Various factions will see this as an attempt to wipe out evidence of humans being the Loroi template species, unwarranted bloodthirstiness, or simply out and out paranoia, to say nothing of outrage at arbitrarily deciding to wipe out a species that has yet to even have an impact on the war, positive or negative. The political fallout of a successful human genocide, let alone a failed attempt should the worst arise for the Loroi, would break the Union. Their client species would pull out, negotiate a settlement with the Umiak and stand by as the Umiak roll over the greatly weakened Loroi.
The case for the humans siding with the Umiak is essentially the same as above, but with all the political fallout removed. Wiping out the humans becomes a necessary strategic decision especially given their powerful lotai. They're essentially the Tithric 2.0, Electric Boogaloo.
As long as humanity does not declare for the Umiak, the Loroi have zero reasons to opt for genocide, as the cost of doing so is far greater than whatever gains they might make from that.
These are of course the Watsonian justifications for the Loroi not genociding humans. From a Doylist perspective, telling the story about how Alex becomes one of the last humans alive and is forced to be a kept pet of humanity's conquerors at best and a POW at worst is not a very compelling nor exciting story. There is a lot of dramatic tension that has Earth hanging in the balance whilst Alex is the one who is front and center, who's actions or lack thereof may save or doom the Earth. Furthermore, it would make the Loroi characters difficult to relate to and impossible to like. As long as Earth hangs in the balance, we've got great dramatic tension and a reason to invest. If Earth is devastated and humanity wiped out, the story loses that tension entirely.
Regarding Master of Orion, whilst I grant that this comic would likely not exist without it, I think you're reading far too much into the game and applying it to the comic's story. Anyone using a bio-weapon on that scale can and should expect retaliation, diplomatically, economically, and militarily. It's basically a giant neon sign flashing stating "I'm Evil! Whoo!" to every single one of their neighbours. Given the position of the Loroi, the state of the war, and the disposition of their allies, the use of such is precluded if they want to remain in the fight.