Page 206: Just needs an expert's touch

[GeoModder]

The Hierarchy invaded Union territory under unclear circumstances. We don't know what spurred them into action. It might very well be that the war started by accident and that the Umiak were under the genuine believe that they were about to be invaded themselves. Alternatively, they could have come to the conclusion that invasion then was more beneficial than further coexistence. For example a projection of growth rates of both empires, the Loroi making advances in some key fields or Umiak fears that with the passage of time, the Lorois Mizol and telepaths would give the Union a significant strategic advantage.

That two parties are in conflict doesn't mean they can't have valid reasons for their behaviour.

As far as we know, there was only the one incident at Ukko prior to the Umiak assault. Further more there's the Umiak's habit of deploying huge defensive fleets in their border areas, so they're relatively secure from unexpected invasions.
To me it looks like the Umiak use a stepping-stone system for their expansion. First comes the diplomatic negotiations with their current neighbours at the edge of the Hierarchy, then the demands and perhaps threats, and if all that fails to impress the target race, the closest bivouac fleet transfers divisions into the Offensive Command arm. Rinse and repeat with the new neighbours.

[Werra]

Yes, Ukko was the spark that lighted the powder keg. Whether the Umiak were trying to cause a war or merely well prepared is unknown.
They do seem a lot more proactive about expansion then the Loroi. Who have merely committed two genocides in self-defense.

And as of page 206 Tempo is not only a spook, but she also glows in the dark. Arioch, I didn't know you were running TempleOS.

[GeoModder]

And as of page 206 Tempo is not only a spook, but she also glows in the dark. Arioch, I didn't know you were running TempleOS.

You sure you don't mean TempOS?

[Mk_C]

They clearly did nothing to prepare for an attack from a horde of bugs

Apart from having an already oversized spacefleet. And what else they could do? Build up a larger one? The Hierarchy is flat-out better at that - in time that the Union would took for a military build up, the shells can build up more. The entirety of the Naam incident has illustrated to us very clearly that Loroi can't simply throw more gun at the bug problem - it buys time, but even when they are stomping a hundred for each Loroi, the shells build up even more and end up accomplishing their strategic goals. Trying to just have more thunder than the Hierarchy is a doomed endeavour.

seems their entire life goal was to simply hit weaker foes

Isn't that literally the purpose of having any armed forces ever? So that potential foes are weaker than you, giving you ample opportunity to politically utilize violence while the enemy can't do the same? You make those so that you are not the weaker one around.

they should have known the Umaki are ever expanding monsters that consume all things before them.

Except we and everyone else knows that they are not all-consuming monsters - we've seen an entirely intelligent conversation with one, they are not the ones famous for bombarding most life out of planets, and those they've conquered or bullied are not gone - they were integrated into the Hierarchy's machine, with the shells holding control over how they run things and to what purposes on the excuse of being stronger. That last part seems very familiar. The Hierarchy is merely what the current Union aspires to be, taken to it's logical conclusion - more force, more power, more control, more obedience, more expansion, more conquest. Whatever can be called monstrous about it stares at the Loroi back from the mirror. If they carry on trying to overpower, subjugate or exterminate whatever they perceive as a threat in a drive for control and security, they will inevitably end up indistinguishable from the Hierarchy. They already gave up their economic flexibility for the sake of centralized total war mobilization. They already throw effectively children into the meat grinder. They already see genocide as an functional approach to solving strategic problems. What's left to do? Inventing functional enough cloning and cyberprostetics for the Teidar to deal with casualties? Increasing their industrial capacity by about an order of magnitude at the cost of ecology? They are not far off from there - for everyone else involved, like the humanity, it's alread a choice of "which of these tyrannies seems less abhorrent".

Nice plan only the left would think that one up.

Arioch came up with that one - he's writing the story after all, and doesn't seem intent on portraying the Loroi leadership as intentional idiots. Besides, let's remember who else came up with very similar plans. Like~
- Chamberlain's Britain.
- Pilsudski's Poland.
- Mannerheim's Finland.
Which one of those would you call "left"?

Crazy that people want to be prepared for a possible crisis after 2020.

How's your toilet paper trove doing?

[Werra]

Lots of people ran out of toilet paper due to market uncertainty. In 2020 it only happened with a few products that people were able to do without. There is no guarantee that the next shortage won't be in something potentially vital like munitions or medicine. 2020 merely reminded people that the economy is fragile. You're like a man deriding the presence of portable fire exinguishers in a building with an automatic fire suppression system.

Apart from having an already oversized spacefleet. And what else they could do?

It's clear that the assault took the Loroi by surprise. They could have done better had their large fleet been ready for immediate battle and in position to receive the enemy. Such as it was, the Loroi had to scramble their forces.

Isn't that literally the purpose of having any armed forces ever? So that potential foes are weaker than you, giving you ample opportunity to politically utilize violence while the enemy can't do the same? You make those so that you are not the weaker one around.

No. A standing army can serve several other purposes, even if it's rather small compared to the other armies around. Such as to maintain the skills and expertise necessary to field a larger army when needed, to serve as a guarantee of social stability, to give a part of your nation a purpose and role, as happened in feudal Japan or feudal Europe. Even a small army can still be a deterrent to powerful nations, if the costs of conquest are larger than the benefits.
Then there are reasons to maintain a fighting force that do not have anything to do with open warfare. An army can serve as a reserve pool of manpower for disaster relief. Demonstrated by the Bundeswehr when they were used to fight high tides several times. The army can also help young men identify with the state, create a bond between them, teach valuable skills; possible if the army is combined with mandatory military service. A small army can also nonetheless be a diplomatic tool, as it allows a small state to contribute with expertise in fields your army focuses on or via special forces. Economic interests surely also play a part. The German army for example field tests a lot of equipment that is then exported to other nations.

[Arioch]

If you have closed borders (as the Umiak did before the war), then you can mass forces on the border in preparation for an attack without the enemy having any idea that they are there.

[Dan Wyatt]

If you have closed borders (as the Umiak did before the war), then you can mass forces on the border in preparation for an attack without the enemy having any idea that they are there.

But Loroi could've sense them at the border at that time, the farseers are good at it. So why did the Loroi got ambushed in the first half of war?
Did they underestimate the shells?

[Werra]

My guess is that the Umiak kept most of their later invasion force in the border systems anyway. This way it looked like the base population level to the farseers. Or the Umiak trickled the forces in slowly over the decades they did border the Loroi.

[Arioch]

Farseers sense the Umiak crews rather than the ships, and it's very hard to tell the crews from other Umiak in the system, especially if there's an inhabited colony there.

[raistlin34]

for everyone else involved, like the humanity, it's alread a choice of "which of these tyrannies seems less abhorrent".

For humans, the problem is that both tyrannical systems are all too familiar for our liking.

[LineNoise]

Farseeing must have a limit, so just manufacture and hold your strike force beyond that limit.

Foresight, unlike hindsight, is not 2020. Expending 100% of you cultures resources on a future that is not 100% inevitable is poor resource management.
Yes the Loroi could have gone all out on war production even before war was certain ... and then suffered revolt from overworked citizens.
You know what they say "there ain't no such thing as a free war machine" Therefore it seem believable to me story-wise that the Loroi held off on
total commitment to war until the Umiak pressed the issue. In the real world restraint ( self restraint ) is a survival trait, i'm not surprised that
the Loroi have some.

Fast breading resource hungry expanding folks usually keep them selves in check by fighting between themselves. But the leading edge at least of the Umiak seem to be a cohesive bunch. This is the Loroi major problem with the Umiak. Lack of internal conflict means there is no evolutionary pressure for the Umiak or their society to evolve self-restraint. Perhaps the Loroi should ask the Historians if they have any records of how the last empire managed to genetically modify Humanity into the Loroi and if something analogous can be done with the Umiak either to get them to breed lass or kill each other more.

Of course all of these musings don't really belong in a space opera/fantasy discussion blog... so i'll stop now.

[CrimsonFALKE]

If you have closed borders (as the Umiak did before the war), then you can mass forces on the border in preparation for an attack without the enemy having any idea that they are there.

Well there is a sound argument for border security

[CrimsonFALKE]

Farseers sense the Umiak crews rather than the ships, and it's very hard to tell the crews from other Umiak in the system, especially if there's an inhabited colony there.

So they can't tell the difference between planet and ship based life forms?

[orion1836]

I think that's a reasonable assumption. At most you'd probably have a sense of "life here," and that's it. Easy to detect fleets in dead star systems, harder when there are millions of aliens on a colony world masking the signature of the fleet.

[Arioch]

Farseers sense the Umiak crews rather than the ships, and it's very hard to tell the crews from other Umiak in the system, especially if there's an inhabited colony there.

So they can't tell the difference between planet and ship based life forms?

It's kind of like looking at the night sky with the naked eye and trying to resolve a binary system. Even one as close as Alpha Centauri is so relatively distant that the two visible stars look like one.

[CrimsonFALKE]

Farseers sense the Umiak crews rather than the ships, and it's very hard to tell the crews from other Umiak in the system, especially if there's an inhabited colony there.

So they can't tell the difference between planet and ship based life forms?

It's kind of like looking at the night sky with the naked eye and trying to resolve a binary system. Even one as close as Alpha Centauri is so relatively distant that the two visible stars look like one.

Can I ask why the even bother using it when say a LIDAR and high powered telescope might do better? Its like Loroi a bunch of warriors just let the ball drop on one of the most important things ever at times. Maybe I am in the wrong area.

[dragoongfa]

Can I ask why the even bother using it when say a LIDAR and high powered telescope might do better? Its like Loroi a bunch of warriors just let the ball drop on one of the most important things ever at times. Maybe I am in the wrong area.

LIDAR and telescopes are slower than light by their nature. Farsensing is practically instant across light years of distance, allowing for real time intelligence.

[Ithekro]

Knowing there are Umiak in the next system over doesn't do you much good if there are suppose to be Umiak in that system (a colony or outpout). But if there are Umiak in a system where there are not suppose to be Umiak, that can be useful as an early warning to get ships here....NOW!

[CrimsonFALKE]

Can I ask why the even bother using it when say a LIDAR and high powered telescope might do better? Its like Loroi a bunch of warriors just let the ball drop on one of the most important things ever at times. Maybe I am in the wrong area.

LIDAR and telescopes are slower than light by their nature. Farsensing is practically instant across light years of distance, allowing for real time intelligence.

well that adds a new issue you really can't spy on people who are in their own closed system when you need to.

[dragoongfa]

Can I ask why the even bother using it when say a LIDAR and high powered telescope might do better? Its like Loroi a bunch of warriors just let the ball drop on one of the most important things ever at times. Maybe I am in the wrong area.

LIDAR and telescopes are slower than light by their nature. Farsensing is practically instant across light years of distance, allowing for real time intelligence.

well that adds a new issue you really can't spy on people who are in their own closed system when you need to.

It's either trying to dig through far sense readings or nothing since any slower than light observation would at best return years old intelligence.

The Loroi did drop the ball in not being proactive about gathering intelligence and carefully observing a potential hostile state; that's a mistake they paid for dearly. However there is little that they could do without beginning a costly and in depth intelligence gathering operation within the Hierarchy.