Page 85

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Voitan
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Re: Page 85

Post by Voitan »

Lets try and figure out what technological generations may mean in Outsider.

Because as technology goes, advances come faster and faster if we're talking about humanity here.

I'll quote the Insider:
Tech-wise, the Loroi are about three generations ahead of the Terrans; Terran vessels have no defensive screens, and are limited to about 6G acceleration. Loroi ships can sustain 30G acceleration, and their blasters and pulse cannon do a lot more damage at much greater ranges than lasers (although the Loroi do still use lasers for point-defense weapons, and are considered quaint for still using them). The Loroi were using weapons and systems similar to what the Terrans have now (plus fighters) in the big war that formed their empire several hundred years ago.
This is unfortunately a fluid term here, when talking in the perspective of different cultures, but since the insider is meant to inform a reader about a fictional world, we can safely assume it to mean what we take for as three technological generations.

And as I've said before, our current rate of technological leaps come faster and faster.

A technological generation to a Loroi may mean decades, but to humanity that may simply be a few years.

What is three technological generations to us?

Keeping in mind, in a century and a half, our ability would be far beyond what we can imagine ourselves now, a rate of technological development that is blindingly fast in Outsider if you take the rate the Loroi have gone.

Also, when humanity does eventually adapt a working peice of tech from the Umiak or Loroi, you can bet that we won't settle for simply bringing us on par with our enemy or allies. It'd be best to develop something that can fight a war in the future beyond just this conflict, so as keep production flowing non stop.
Last edited by Voitan on Sun May 01, 2011 7:09 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Trantor
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Re: Page 85

Post by Trantor »

BattleRaptor wrote:Given a working Umiak or Loroi ship, Terran ships would in short order start incorporating technogly from the alien ship in a relative short time a couple of years at most.

Could they create it at a quality equal to the orginal.
HIGHLY UNLIKELY.
Leave it to us... 8-)

BattleRaptor wrote:Well After the use of Japans mini subs during ww2, other countries tried to copy them... with little success.

Is this because of Japans skill at production?
no.. japan was ACTUALLY at a ww1 tech level.
Infact if japan had provided templates USA/Germany could have started mass producing them instantly.

THE problem wasnt the Tech level, it was actually designing it.
Well, other way round they adapted very quickly. E.g. they had only a few photos and some (not all!) cross-section-drawings from the german BMW-003 jet-engine (Me 262), and they developed a clone in a few months for their own Nakajima Kikka. It didn´t saw action, though.
sapere aude.

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Re: Page 85

Post by fredgiblet »

Voitan wrote:Lets try and figure out what technological generations may mean in Outsider...*snip*
Arioch wrote:My notion is that it's really our culture that makes us advance rapidly. Human technology advanced very slowly throughout most of human history, sometimes going forward and sometimes backsliding with the fall of civilizations, until there arose a culture in the West (around the time of the Renaissance) that really valued innovation and rewarded change. Since then, technology has really progressed on a steep curve for us, progressing from medieval technology to starflight in not much more than 500 years -- ten times faster than the Loroi.

What I think would be more impressive to the local aliens, though, is that we did it mostly on our own, without the benefit of historical knowledge of the Soia civilization, or examples of artifacts to follow. The Umiak also progressed from a primitive nomadic culture to starflight very rapidly, but they had a more advanced local race to emulate and later steal from, something they became very good at.

If you're asking how quickly Humanity can catch up, that depends heavily on how much assistance they can get. But even just seeing examples of what's possible can be a huge benefit to technological progress -- it's a lot easier to find something if you know what you're looking for.
Ten times faster WITHOUT assistance. Meaning if we're a thousand years behind now it'd be about a hundred years before we hit Loroi level tech with no assistance.

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bunnyboy
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Re: Page 85

Post by bunnyboy »

Japaneses are good to copy, and to improve too.

How I think of technology advancements.
(Considering that in mobilephones there comes new generation in almost every second year but that is not same as tehcnology)

1 generation:
anyone can say what is it, and most people can use it easily after moment and they wonder why they haven't them sooner
2 generations:
most people could answer what is it for, but needs first to help for even simples use. only a few understand it for its full potential
3 generations:
most people don't know what it is, but could found out some off it's uses. not that they could use it themselves.

And talking at phones, when i moved from Image to Image, i turned it off by taking the battery, because i didn't found out the big red power button. :oops:
The right button was told to me two year later, by my technofobical friend. :oops: :oops:

But this is how the loroi see us.
We are backwater race with only one ex-spaceship from somewhere near. Even from this same star system, considering how you can't see anything on long range in here and how humans are naturally unfindable. Another bossibility is that our invisible deathstar is just hovering there and watching their little game with umiaks but that would be just paranoid.
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NOMAD
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Re: Page 85

Post by NOMAD »

Trantor wrote:
THE problem wasnt the Tech level, it was actually designing it.
Well, other way round they adapted very quickly. E.g. they had only a few photos and some (not all!) cross-section-drawings from the german BMW-003 jet-engine (Me 262), and they developed a clone in a few months for their own Nakajima Kikka. It didn´t saw action, though.[/quote]

well that is an excellent of example of Reverse engineering going directly into production ( however late), but if you think this could happen with human and Loroi tech, I'm going to agree with sentiments in the forum that is going to near impossible to get everything we need in order to get a fleet going.

The reason why I saying this is that, your example with the ME262 above is an example of a plane that could be built by any of the major combatants during WWII. But could the same to done with say, sending a F-22 back in time to 1940 Europe. I'm sure they could use it, but trying to Build more, WILL be impossible for anyone in that time period and still be effective as a 2010 version would be. I'm sure they could understand many of principles and could copy the design, but the copies wouldn't reach the same performance rating as a 2010 F-22.

Granted my example may not be the best, but it get to the point of the argument here, If the Loroi were up to giving us tech we could copy some of the weapons ( Loroi type lasers, maybe 20g+ torpedo's) but not drive or shield techs.
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CptWinters
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Re: Page 85

Post by CptWinters »

According to Insider, it took four years for Loroi scientists to back-engineer the pulse-cannon from Historian technology. They already knew the basic principles of its creation, and it's just a weapon--nothing so drastic as a complete revolution in ship-design and manufacture. In-universe, I think it's fairly safe to say that any kind of Loroi technological donation will not see combat for at least that long.

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Trantor
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Re: Page 85

Post by Trantor »

NOMAD wrote:The reason why I saying this is that, your example with the ME262 above is an example of a plane that could be built by any of the major combatants during WWII. But could the same to done with say, sending a F-22 back in time to 1940 Europe. I'm sure they could use it, but trying to Build more, WILL be impossible for anyone in that time period and still be effective as a 2010 version would be. I'm sure they could understand many of principles and could copy the design, but the copies wouldn't reach the same performance rating as a 2010 F-22.

Granted my example may not be the best, but it get to the point of the argument here, If the Loroi were up to giving us tech we could copy some of the weapons ( Loroi type lasers, maybe 20g+ torpedo's) but not drive or shield techs.
That´s for sure. It is not about the "look", it is more about the "know how". First, we would have to develop the tools to make the machinery to build the parts... and then we´d have to substitute all those parts where there is really no chance to develop them in let´s say 20 years.
In your F-22 example in ´45 the latter would be avionics/computers and ceramics. It would take 5 to 6 years even for the engines to reverse-engineer them (on highest priority and vast investments), and they would still not fully meet the original.

I mean, very basically everything was already discovered back then: Stealth: Horten flying wings, Axialturbos: Jumo 004 and BMW 003, Ramjets: Lorin SST (pic1, pic2 inflight), Computers: Zuse (also especially a machine for calculating airfoils)...
A time-traveling example leading the way definitely would have helped to avoid all the detours in the last decades.
But still a long way to go.

So for copying loroi-tech it would be the same pattern: to basically understand the principle, then cutting corners in reliability, quality and stamina for the benefit of pace, and finally from that point on making our own R&D.
Including to start overtaking the space-elves. 8-)
sapere aude.

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Mjolnir
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Re: Page 85

Post by Mjolnir »

BattleRaptor wrote:However you stated from Theory to practice.. and theory to practice is a HELL of alot diffrent from working version and copying it.
I stated no such thing, I in fact have repeatedly mentioned things that we have working in labs, yet are years or decades from commercial implementation. You're talking about copying something given only a working model, without any theoretical understanding or industrial capabilities for producing the needed materials and parts.

BattleRaptor wrote:ANY bronze age Civilization could create a electric motor if given current day working permamanget version.
Infact they could even mass produce it for the standards of the time.

Would it be far less efficent due to uneven copper wire, the copper being less impure and having higher resistance.
The Rare Earth Magnets being poorly formed.
Yes yes yes and yes...
They'd be utterly baffled by rare earth magnets, which require exotic materials and processing to produce not just the right alloy but the right crystalline structures, and additional processing to permanently magnetize them. Permanent magnets were quite weak iron and natural magnetite things for most of the history of their use, it took alnico and ceramics to make them useful in motors and other electromechanical devices, and bronze age man couldn't even produce iron magnets. Even during the Renaissance we couldn't produce plain old alnico, lacking the ability to produce the needed aluminum even if we could identify it as being needed. Without any theoretical grounding in electricity and electromagnetism, it's anyone's guess how long it'd be before they figured out they needed insulated wire, worked out a way to insulate it without adding too much bulk, discovered it needed to be wound in the right direction and hooked up to brushes and commutators to connect them in the right order and polarity to an outside electrical power source...which they will also have to come up with.

And no, they could not mass produce them. Copper was used for expensive tools and jewelry, and they didn't have iron. The best they're likely to achieve is a crude toy.

BattleRaptor wrote:Given a working Umiak or Loroi ship, Terran ships would in short order start incorporating technogly from the alien ship in a relative short time a couple of years at most.

Could they create it at a quality equal to the orginal.
HIGHLY UNLIKELY.

Could they mass produce it on a level to match the Umiak or Loroi..
NO

Could they copy everything...
NO, some things would require further advances.
Exactly.

BattleRaptor wrote:You have effectively made the claim that Humans cant copy it untill we are at a equal level of advancement.
No, I haven't. My claim that this:
Voitan wrote:It only takes one peice of stolen or gifted tech, and within the year, crack it, and just two more, chugging them out like crazy, on top of whatever unconventional ideas that had already been mulled over for decades/centuries but had not the technology to implement them.
...is a wildly unrealistic description of what humanity can be expected to achieve. My claim is that some things will require extensive industrial foundations before we can even start to produce them, and that having a working example doesn't trump lack of theoretical understanding or industrial capabilities.

A more likely scenario would be us buying up outdated Loroi manufacturing equipment, spacecraft, what goes for written engineering literature among the Loroi, etc and attempting to retrace their industrial development at an accelerated pace while relying on them for materials we can't make and components we can't yet build. It's a matter of drastically upgrading and expanding our industry, not of copying a few gadgets. Some pieces of technology will be adapted within a year or so, but these will be the exception, not the rule. Much of the early advancement would probably actually be stuff we were already designing, but couldn't build until we got our hands on some used Loroi manufacturing equipment. None of this will be enough for us to make any immediate difference in the war, and the way it's currently going there won't be time for us to catch up.

BattleRaptor wrote:Well After the use of Japans mini subs during ww2, other countries tried to copy them... with little success.

Is this because of Japans skill at production?
no.. japan was ACTUALLY at a ww1 tech level.
Infact if japan had provided templates USA/Germany could have started mass producing them instantly.

THE problem wasnt the Tech level, it was actually designing it.
The problem was actually designing it, because the technology was identical to that already in use. Again, you're comparing with a situation that's nothing like the one that exists in Outsider.

Your "recurved bow" analogy was ridiculously disconnected from the situation in the comic, but led to a better one: give a Mongolian bowsmith a carbon fiber compound bow and see how long it takes him to replicate it. He wouldn't stand a chance of replicating the materials. He might manage to construct a compound bow out of materials he has, but it'd be heavy and hopelessly complicated to mass produce as a replacement for typical Mongolian recurved bows. He'd be completely unable to replicate the lightweight, accurate, mechanically-efficient bow he was given, until he got access to carbon fiber, composite resins, the manufacturing processes required to work with them, etc.

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Re: Page 85

Post by BattleRaptor »

Mjolnir
English words Magnet comes from Anient greek.
Figured I would edit my post, and that Technicly they are not "rare" Earth magnets so you are infact right.
However they still allow them to recreate a motor.. current rare earth magnets have only been around since the 70s, with manmade or natural based magnets used before then.

You are right my mistake BTW..


You claim theory.. now you are attempting to CLAIM that because there are working labotory versions which are nothing more then proof of concept and that they cant massproduce these that it proves your point.
Yet define "WORKING"
No Memsistor has been developed.. at least publicly claimed that can hold its state permanetly after being powered down.
ONLY able to hold its state for a fair ammount of time.
Which are proofs of concept that memsistors should be possible.

See I actually do check things before I claim someone is wrong.

So honestly are you saying?
Once the right materials are FOUND that creates a Memsistor it wouldnt be rather trival in comparison to developing it from theory to production to just COPY it?
That they would take the same ammount of time?


Now on to outsiders.

So apparently in outsiders..
Humans advance 10 times faster then the Loroi
The Loroi took 4 years to reverse engineer blasters.

So it would.
It would have taken humans 4.8 months assuming Loroi level tech.

A generation in Human Military Terms currently in relation to aircraft is roughly 12 years.
People generation is roughly 20 years.
Current jet fighters are the 5th generation with 6th generation fighters comming into operation over the next 5-10 years.

The loroi are only 30-40(or 60) years ahead.
Not only could Humans understand current generation fighters 35 years ago they could mostly copy them.
Infact many of the advances between 3nd generation and current 5th generation fighters was in how to, creating aircraft so they were easier to maintain and repair, making parts standard between mutiple craft.

PS-Horn/sinew/wood composiate bows perform up there with Top of the Line Compounds.
Infact compound bows are a perfect example of massproduction.
The bow themselves are not superior to the best hand crafted bows, they however can be mass produced.
YET no company can mass produce Horn/Sinew/Wood Composiate bows on a production line.. the Materials just dont allow for it.
Last edited by BattleRaptor on Sun May 01, 2011 5:36 pm, edited 4 times in total.

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Re: Page 85

Post by Rosen_Ritter_1 »

Let's put it this way. The amount of time it would take humanity to modernize to Loroi/Umiak standards even WITH help from the Loroi/Umiak, it'd still take to long to have any impact on the story, or even the long term Loroi/Umiak war. While the war has been dragging on in stalemate for a long time, in 60-90 years it doesn't seem like the situation could continue at it's current pace. At the very least, Earth would probably be drawn into combat at that point.

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Re: Page 85

Post by BattleRaptor »

lets forget all the arguing on what ifs and focus on the simple stated FACTs.
Its been stated humans WONT be providng military help.
Its been stated Humanity is only 3 generations behind.. and thats without help...
Generation is between 30-60 years depending if generation means Technology or people.

The question is how much faster would Humans advance if given full access to Loroi level technology to the point we can start offering replacement parts and ship compoents to the Loroi.

We know the Maxium ammount of time without help.
How much would that be cut down WITH help.

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Re: Page 85

Post by Mjolnir »

BattleRaptor wrote:English words Magnet comes from Anient greek.
Rare Earth magnets have quite large natural ground level despoits around Europe, the greeks used them quite alot as toys for kids novelty items and in experiments.
CURRENT rare earth magnets used in elertonics are man made and created in the needed shape.
Just becuase mankind now finds it easier to create something.. such as Rare Earth magnets or Dimonds doesnt just suddenly make the Natural ones cease to have ever existed.

Please atleast do a LITTLE background checking before you tell someone they are wrong.
The irony...
Natural rare earth magnets don't exist. Natural magnets (lodestones) are composed of magnetite, as I mentioned, and are nowhere near as strong as even the ceramic and alnico magnets that rare earth magnets have replaced.

BattleRaptor wrote:You claim theory.. now you are attempting to CLAIM that because there are working labotory versions which are nothing more then proof of concept and that they cant massproduce these that it proves your point.
Yet define "WORKING"
No Memsistor has been developed.. at least publicly claimed that can hold its state permanetly after being powered down.
ONLY able to hold its state for a fair ammount of time.
Which are proofs of concept that memsistors should be possible.

See I actually do check things before I claim someone is wrong.
So you claim, but it's hard to see how you could be so wrong if that were so. The memristors created at HP in 2006 and several other labs since are real working devices. They haven't been around long enough for their persistence to be characterized, but given that there's no reason to expect the oxygen vacancies used in their implementation to be more mobile than the trapped electrons used by flash memory, they probably store data without corruption for similar periods if not longer than flash memory.

BattleRaptor wrote:So honestly are you saying?
Once the right materials are FOUND that creates a Memsistor it wouldnt be rather trival in comparison to developing it from theory to production to just COPY it?
That they would take the same ammount of time?
Their success and confidence in going to commercial production means that the titanium oxide films HP and Hynix are working with is probably one of the "right materials". The sticking point is developing the fabrication processes that can be used to produce them by the millions per chip with consistent performance. This is something that has killed several other memory technologies and caused others to go obsolete as soon as a minimally-acceptable alternative was available (core memory, for example) and something that they're still working on.

BattleRaptor wrote:Now on to outsiders.

So apparently in outsiders..
Humans advance 10 times faster then the Loroi
The Loroi took 4 years to reverse engineer blasters.

So it would.
It would have taken humans 4.8 months assuming Loroi level tech.
Do you honestly believe this is a reasonable approach? Seriously?

The Loroi were in a war for survival, desperate for a more effective weapon, and working with outside assistance. Their rate of progress can't be compared with their historical, mostly-peacetime progress, and assuming humans could do the job in 1/10th the time is absurd. They're culturally slow to innovate and accept new ideas, not fundamentally incompetent at working with technology.

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Re: Page 85

Post by BattleRaptor »

Humans during peace time advance FAR slower then they do during war time, and the Loroi have been at war for 20 years and its been stated humans advance 10 times faster.

Cold war is an exception in part due to the vast ammounts of money Russia and the USA spent on weapons research.
However it could still be considered peace time as spending would go up if war broke out.

So infact I underestimated just how much quicker the humans could advance now they are going from peace time to war time research.

You are right about the magnets HOWEVER, and I was wrong, I was damn sure Some loadstone deposits contained neodymium in Europe disproving the idea that they cant be found naturally, however I cant find a valid source to put forward to prove the point.

Yet you were wrong about them NOT being able to create an Electric motor.
Are you saying that a copper wire core with loadstone as the Field magnet will not function at all either to rotate or generate current if rotated?

HP developed a "working" memsistor in 2008 not 2006, in 2010 they even have it arrayed and increased its speed.
Hp stated that they only expect to have a FULLY WORKING version that can be mass produced by 2013.
Did I miss something?
Got an article for current fully working memsistors that dont decay lose state, or otherwise have problems?
I just found that HP did at the end of 2010 develop working memsistors that doesnt have any problems and can be used for actually making memsistor devices.
Once they work out how to produce it on mass and obviously stack and array it.



You have also FAILED to answer a question repeatedly.
So I will put it simply

Do you claim copying something is just as difficult and time consuming as developing it from theory to mass production?

Yes/No

Also
Are you claiming Humans with a full working Loroi ship WILL advance NO faster not one bit not even a single day faster, then if they didnt have access to it.

You have also ignored a very important point with the Loroi vs human advancement.

The loroi have had help, though there entire advacement..
Even now they with mutiple of races, helping them, with tech also gained from there enemy who also has mutiple races.

Humans who only recently made first contact are only 3 generations behind.

dfacto
Arioch has stated thats humans "THING" we advance far faster then other races.
Last edited by BattleRaptor on Sun May 01, 2011 6:23 pm, edited 3 times in total.

Voitan
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Re: Page 85

Post by Voitan »

I figure, unassisted, were only 1-2 decades off from catching up to the point where the workings of the current tech can then be taken further ahead of anyone else, save perhaps the historians.

Assuming all we have to go off of is data from battles, and nothing else.

If given standard Loroi tech to fiddle with, I'll repeat; 1 year to understand it, and 2 to get it in mass production.

3 generations is going to be easy enough to understand within a year given a working example to study off of.

Updating the industrial capacity will take some time to get things produced in massive numbers, but we're talking about total war here, everyone has a fire lit under their ass to work faster.

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Re: Page 85

Post by dfacto »

Voitan wrote:I figure, unassisted, were only 1-2 decades off from catching up to the point where the workings of the current tech can then be taken further ahead of anyone else, save perhaps the historians.
That's a rather ambitious statement. It sounds like bullshit if you consider modern development cycles (Hell, it would probably take just a decade to construct a proper factory able to produce necessary components for current Loroi tech), but with sci-fi you can never tell.

It seems unlikely to me, simply because Arioch seems to have crafted a very nice narrative. Having mindbogglingly quick advancement on humanity's part would smack of overzealous fanfiction, not serious space opera.

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Re: Page 85

Post by Voitan »

Though in the interim between all that, whether we get something, or not (more than likely no), I'll say again that the Loroi will be interested in our culture, biology, and history.

Internet v6.0 and Google v12.0 with autofactWiki, and simul-space explorer is going to be addicting for someone of the listel castes.

All that freaking anime and videogames man, all that Irish tales of fair folk? Bah! Who cares about that...

There might be some cultural blending into Loroi society that might upend a few things is all I'm saying.
That's a rather ambitious statement. It sounds like bullshit if you consider modern development cycles
But in 150 years, "modern development cycles" will be different.

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Re: Page 85

Post by dfacto »

Voitan wrote:But in 150 years, "modern development cycles" will be different.
Absolutely. But this comic doesn't strike me as the hyper-technological type; more like standard soft sci-fi. If you chart modern development through another 150 years it's highly likely that we would have reached a technological singularity due to machine consciousness and nanotech. If this was real hardcore sci-fi the narrative would be vastly different.

The Bellarmine would be a fully robotic probe containing quantumly encrypted nav information and a single stored human body with an artificial consciousness created specifically for contact, but devoid of any potentially harmful information. The entire ship would be cooled to near 0 Kelvin, have an EM stealth cloak, a top tier detection suite, and be designed for stealth and speed above all else. Nobody would detect it upon system entry, and currently Alex would be in cold sleep while the Bell watches the Loroi fleet leave the system to escape the Umiak. Contact with the Umiak would be established, and humanity would join them because of their apparent superiority. We would provide an undetectable attack fleet (look ma, no organics!) and ultimately lead to the Loroi's defeat.

Then the Historians would assimilate us, but them's the breaks.

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Re: Page 85

Post by bunnyboy »

I have something to say for both sides.

Newest technology or materials isn't always best, if you have another view. Carbon fiber is super for any wood or bone, (in weight and manufacturing quality) but no new material is good for bowstring as cord made from tendon. The Mongolian bowsmith could understand how a carbon fiber compound bow will work and make a crude replica from his own materials, but because of different stress, the first one wouldn't be very safe to use. Even if he only change better cord (in his knowledge) to the gift bow, it may make it worse, because the bow is made to work with different type of cord.
BattleRaptor wrote:So apparently in outsiders..
Humans advance 10 times faster then the Loroi
The Loroi took 4 years to reverse engineer blasters.
Loroi are like pre WW2 japanese, warriorminded and effective, but not good for getting & following their own ideas (& safety). So humans can still use even 12 years for same work, because of the safety testing & shareholders meeting. ;) The speed difference can be seen as when humans later makes constantly small uppgrades to make it cheaper & better.
BattleRaptor wrote:A generation in Human Military Terms currently in relation to aircraft is roughly 12 years.
People generation is roughly 20 years.
And in computer programs & entertainment electronics, generation can be as small as couple of years. But there aren't any 2-generation spaceshuttles, even as they made first flight 35 years ago. If you speak industrial, military or economic generations, one step could take more than hundreds of years.

Edit
As for development system, any new innovations comes a slowly to excistence, then they have fast booming and after that development is slover.
As for cars, the fast phase was around 1940-1960. Any new model has some new innovation which has huge effect, like first car with brakes etc. Now biggest innovation in long time is self parking car, and knightrider is how old?
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Voitan
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Re: Page 85

Post by Voitan »

dfacto wrote:
Voitan wrote:But in 150 years, "modern development cycles" will be different.
Absolutely. But this comic doesn't strike me as the hyper-technological type; more like standard soft sci-fi. If you chart modern development through another 150 years it's highly likely that we would have reached a technological singularity due to machine consciousness and nanotech. If this was real hardcore sci-fi the narrative would be vastly different.
I think you'll agree with me that you're somewhat contradicting yourself.

If indeed our IRL projected development would would go so far as you say it will, which I agree, and then say my similar projections as to smack of "overzealous fanfiction", or not "serious space opera", it's not fair to say I'm spouting "bullshit".

I'm being realistic.

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Re: Page 85

Post by dfacto »

Voitan wrote:I think you'll agree with me that you're somewhat contradicting yourself.

If indeed our IRL projected development would would go so far as you say it will, which I agree, and then say my similar projections as to smack of "overzealous fanfiction", or not "serious space opera", it's not fair to say I'm spouting "bullshit".

I'm being realistic.
Not really. One is my projection for "real" future development. The other is a projection of in-story development based on observed narrative.

1 decade to match the Loroi in "real life" may well be attainable.
1 decade to match the Loroi "in story" sounds exactly like overzealous fanfiction.

I know I'm being rather meta about this argument, what with analyzing the story writing style and all, but that is an important consideration. Having humanity go from zero to hero in ten years considering they are currently absolutely useless wouldn't fit well with the narrative being constructed so far. If this was a manga with HOTBLOOD and MANLINESS then sure, but it's not.

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