Page 87

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Voitan
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Re: Page 87

Post by Voitan »

Mjolnir wrote:
Voitan wrote:Loroi will probably think these observations/descriptors from their POV, of the human body as the reason to the lotai effect.
Not if they know as much about biology as the effectiveness of their treatment of Alex implies.
I think you're reading more into what I mean than is necessary.

I'm saying they would use those words as an expression to describe something different than their biology. Not literally. Unless you think Loroi are incapable of expressing a simile.

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Mjolnir
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Re: Page 87

Post by Mjolnir »

Voitan wrote:I think you're reading more into what I mean than is necessary.
What am I supposed to read into it?

Voitan wrote:I'm saying they would use those words as an expression to describe something different than their biology. Not literally. Unless you think Loroi are incapable of expressing a simile.
You mentioned a straightforward and potentially relevant physical trait of the human body (our brain is divided into two distinct hemispheres), a wildly inaccurate description of bodily tissues as "superconducting" (they aren't superconductors, they don't behave anything at all like superconductors, there's no reason for anyone looking at the physical properties of human tissues to think of superconductors), and a couple mentions of straightforward bodily traits that, while accurate, are almost certainly completely irrelevant (iron and temperature). No similes in sight. "Simile" doesn't explain why "Loroi will probably think these observations/descriptors from their POV, of the human body as the reason to the lotai effect.". At best, one of those things will draw attention as a possible factor.

It'd be interesting to know how a non-telepathy-resistant human mind might appear to a species without a split brain structure, though. Might have problems reliably getting the half that has language ability...

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Re: Page 87

Post by Voitan »

The point is, Alex has an alien biochemistry from Loroi, they'll describe his foreign biochemistry in language with whatever pops into their mind and my post is taken from a hypothetical POV.

Don't get bent out of shape over this.

They'll think that everything different about his body may contribute to his lotai effect.

The relevant part of my post you keep on glossing over:
Loroi will probably think these observations/descriptors from their POV

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Re: Page 87

Post by icekatze »

hi hi

Hawking, his theories. His theories read to the undergrads. Harvey Cushing, his patient under the knife. Reporters. News reporters. News reporters and their badly conflated conceptions. Shaka when the walls fell.

Oh wait, I'm thinking of metaphors...

I don't want to put words in anyone's mouth, but I get the impression that the point Mjolnir is trying to make is that the Loroi have studied a lot of different races, seen lots of different chemistries, and have some amplification technology, so they're probably not groping in the dark for answers.

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Re: Page 87

Post by Solemn »

Okay, I've thought for a while about something that probably doesn't matter all that much. I've really only skimmed through this thread, so if this was already discussed, I apologize.
I think that when Commander Kikitik 27 refers to "the alien communication," he's talking about Alex's distress signal, not the Bellarmine's broadcast of friendship messages.

On Page 63, Beryl said that they were unaware of the Bellarmine until Alex started transmitting, but that upon examining their sensor data from the battle, she found the Bellarmine's broadcast, followed immediately by four energy spikes which indicate a plasma focus was used to hit the Bell, and that the damage to the wreck is consistent with plasma focus damage. Beryl seemed to have a slightly uncomfortable look to her while she was explaining this, but that could just be me reading too much into her expression. Tempo then added that Loroi pulse cannons have a distinct signature. Then they brought up the subject of Alex's subsequent transmission.

So the Umiak could have been unaware of the previous transmission just as the Loroi were, having been somewhat preoccupied at the time. Unlike the Loroi, the Umiak would not have been able to use Alex's vector and the Bell's initial vector to find a likely point of origin, and thus would have had to scan through all of their sensor logs for all directions at all times leading up to and after the battle if they wanted to be thorough about investigating the alien transmission. But, the data IS there; the Loroi sensors picked it up, and the Umiak were within combat range of the Loroi at the time. There can't be too much of a difference between their sensor abilities, since the Umiak were able to effectively leverage the proplyd as an ambush site, meaning that they'd have to be able to pick up the Loroi through the cloud at least at about the same time that the Loroi could pick them up. So it's possible that the Umiak learned of the Bell's transmission. But, to me, their actions make this seem unlikely. Here's my reasoning.

Beryl, not Tempo (the on-duty Lie-Smith), told us that she detected the repeated discharge of a plasma focus, and she said this before we had visual confirmation of the plasma focus' color; neither Beryl nor Tempo nor anyone else on the bridge had any reason to believe that Alex would get to see the Umiak plasma focus in person. Beryl also doesn't seem like she'd be very good at any level of subterfuge or deception. At all. Which indicates that the plasma focus bursts, which immediately followed the Bellarmine's transmission, were identifiable as plasma focus shots, based on sensor data alone. Now, she DID say this AFTER Alex said the beam he saw was green-ish, so deception isn't entirely off the table, but it seems a little unlikely. Since Tempo was the one who added the part about pulse cannons having a distinct signature, that part's a bit more likely to be a lie, but, why would she bother lying about that?

If the Umiak had looked at the Bell's transmission, they'd see the repeated discharge of a plasma weapon, too. If Tempo is to be believed, then it would be a weapon matching the plasma focus, and not matching the Pulse Cannon. Were I the Umiak commander, that would have terrified me. If I believed that unidentified parties are being blown up far from the battlefield by unanticipated Loroi-aligned groups, waiting for an opportunity, AND that the unknown Loroi ships in question had fully functional plasma foci, which would indicate that:
1. Loroi have mastered the plasma focus.
2. The Loroi have an unknown ship or ships waiting by the sidelines to some unknown purpose, armed with next-generation weapons.
3. The Loroi may have anticipated your manner of attack and have possibly been playing you, since they have an unknown ship of unknown capabilities acting towards unknown purposes which had never attempted to fight you despite clearly possessing the ability to do so.
4. The Loroi have expanded the war in an unanticipated direction, taking action against an unknown species, which, if conquered, could grant them unknown resources or technological advantages.
and/or
5. The Historians have decided to venture out of their own territory on combat-related errands; we're all going to die.

And any ONE of those things could be vital intelligence, which would have to be relayed to Umiak command.
Which would mean sending ships back into Umiak space, since you would otherwise be limited to trying to send signals at the speed of light, what with the lack of telepathy.
However, the Umiak ran a probing feint at the Loroi, which, among other things, would have showed them that none of the ships grouped around the Bell were firing plasma foci. So at least one unknown Loroi ship loaded with next-generation plasma weaponry is lurking elsewhere, possibly salivating at the idea of you splitting up your forces, possibly lurking in order to kill anyone intent on relaying a message home, so under those circumstances I would definitely NOT try opening negotiations as a stalling technique while a smaller number of ships tried to exit the system. If I were 27 there and I had detected the Bell's transmission, then what 27 is doing is nearly the last thing I'd do.

But, if I were 27 and I HAD destroyed the Bellarmine, then what he's doing right now is DEFINITELY the last thing I'd do. Shutting down their engines is an absolutely HUGE show of good faith, even if it's JUST a show and there's another Umiak attack group bearing down on the Loroi at the same time. Shutting down their engines AFTER the Loroi had shown that they would stay in place for as long as possible, just to confuse the Loroi, really isn't something I'd do. If I'd destroyed the Bellarmine, I wouldn't have had any reason to do that, because I'd have had my time with her, or not, after said destruction. The acquisition of her hull would be irrelevant to me at this point, but the opportunity to get a running start and take out the 51st would not. This fleet really doesn't seem like a trivial portion of their forces in this system, either. The idea of hiding an ambush force in the proplyd seems like something that would work better with a few pockets of dispersed forces in high-density areas than a single major force all balled up in one dense pocket, and I get the feeling that even though the 51st had already beaten back the ambush once they still weren't aware that there were anywhere near this many superheavies in the Umiak fleet, which would mean that they'd have only beaten back a portion of this force, rather than all of it at once, which in turn means that 27 had to first aggregate this force from a number of smaller disparate forces before exiting the cloud. So he'd have brought a huge number of ships together and sent them in formation out of the cloud, just to have them hit the brakes. So the idea that there's an equivalent or larger force getting a running start--a running start that the WHOLE fleet could have had instead--under the, previously unheard-of, guise of parley, just seems a little much. It also seems foolhardy and inexpedient, because he doesn't know how much time the Loroi might need to fulfill their unknown purposes with the derelict, and also partly because such deception would diminish the Umiak ability to parley for real should it become necessary, for little immediate gain. If I HADN'T destroyed the Bellarmine, though, then I might try it, if only to give myself a little more scanner time with the wreckage before the Loroi scuttle it and run off. Might be able to figure out what the Loroi were up to then.

27 said that their probing run let them observe the alien craft at close range. Beryl said the damage to the Bell was consistent with the damage caused by a plasma focus. That doesn't necessarily mean that it's INconsistent with damage caused by a Pulse Cannon, since, in the Starship Combat Sim .pdf, both plasma foci and pulse cannons have the Armor-Ablating special; it might look a lot alike. So even with the data from their probing run, they still might not be able to tell the difference between a pulse cannon scorch and a plasma focus scorch. So, as long as 27 didn't know about the destruction of the Bellarmine until he saw the wreck and as long as he didn't go through the sensor logs and find that first transmission, he might not have any way of knowing. So, if the Umiak had neither destroyed the Bellarmine NOR found the Bellarmine's transmission (and the plasma focus discharges that would entail), then bargaining for a while as a means of stalling the Loroi makes some sense as it would allow you to send a ship back to Umiak space with SOME intelligence, regarding how well your ambush worked, how well whatever psi-dampening effect seems to have worked, and also what you saw regarding the Loroi shooting up a strange alien craft, meaning you might just have gained a new willing ally. But I think there's a chance 27 might be completely sincere.

The Umiak might be able to see that they're missing something important if they decided to check through their sensor data. They can probably tell where Alex's transmission came from, and look at where the Bell is right now, and check to see if their sensors indicate any pulse cannon discharges within an appropriate volume in the time between receiving Alex's transmission and their earlier feint, but that'd seem pretty excessive if you thought that the Loroi, yourselves, and one apparently marginally relevant alien vessel transmitting alien pop culture references were the only things in the system; after all, the Loroi got to it first, you saw marks consistent with pulse cannon fire on the hull, the Loroi are now working it over and hovering around it, it all paints a pretty complete picture. I don't think checking the wreckage's current velocity would be particularly helpful since the Loroi could/should have subsequently altered its vector, possibly in order to get it as far from the dense parts of the proplyd--where they KNOW the Umiak are lurking in wait--as possible.

As a side-note, if I were Stillstorm I would prevent any piece of the Bell from fall into Umiak hands at any cost--including the death of the human envoy--unless the Umiak already have their hands on a few human survivors. Alex told the Loroi that his ship was sent to search a range of systems. The Loroi cannot be sure that they have already removed all traces of navigational data from the Bell; for all they know, humans could fingerpaint star-charts on the interior walls of their ships with invisible ink for good luck. The Umiak could look at the systems the Bell was searching and use that to determine a range of systems from which the Bell could possibly have come. It'd at least give them a few directions to start looking in. The Umiak might not care enough to really bother, but the rewards that the Umiak could potentially reap would make any trade unthinkable.

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anticarrot
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Re: Page 87

Post by anticarrot »

fredgiblet wrote:No one's arguing against that. What we ARE arguning against is the idea that [upgrading earth's tech base] is going to be a simple, fast process. If the Loroi or Umiak drop a derelict ship into our laps it's not going to be a matter of a 5 minute montage of engineers arguing around a chalkboard before we have a Historian grade ship ready for deployment.
By the same logic though, organising a 200 lightyear trip is not a simple matter either. Neither is arranging humanity's first First Contact situation. Or translating an alien language. Or any number of other things that probably happened before page 1, and between page 1 and page 2. They've probably had (say) 6 months since their realisation that they might just need a bigger navy. That's time enough to do something, even if it's just kick the shipyards into high gear and move the economy to a war footing.

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Re: Page 87

Post by fredgiblet »

anticarrot wrote:By the same logic though, organising a 200 lightyear trip is not a simple matter either. Neither is arranging humanity's first First Contact situation. Or translating an alien language.
None of those things are even in the same league as jumping 100+ years forward in technology in 2 years.
That's time enough to do something, even if it's just kick the shipyards into high gear and move the economy to a war footing.
Absolutely, but that's putting a band-aid on a .50 cal chest wound.

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Re: Page 87

Post by osmium »

Solemn wrote: Shutting down their engines AFTER the Loroi had shown that they would stay in place for as long as possible, just to confuse the Loroi, really isn't something I'd do.
Just to note we don't have any indication (to my knowledge) of how far out said attack group is. For all we know they are blocking the vector required to head back toward Loroi space and are far enough out that being at a stand still isn't a huge tactical disadvantage such that there is little reason in wasting energy building up velocity especially if the situation is as abnormal to tictak27 as he's implied (meaning it's not clear how to proceed hence tactical decisions aren't obviously easily weighed and compared).

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Ktrain
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Re: Page 87

Post by Ktrain »

Solemn, perhaps the reason the bugmen stopped in place is that they know if they pursue the 51st that the 51st will retreat and destroy the remaining wreckage. Engaging the enemy is not really going to happen in this fight.

@ fredgiblet, gearing up a war economy and producing a larger fleet might not play a military role but rather a diplomatic role. Such behavior might signal to the belligerents that humanity takes threats seriously and potentially garner some respect/better treaty terms. Umiak value efficiency and productivity, and if man can substantially expand/support their military beyond what is typical for a small interstellar nation, then this might be something that they would value. For the Loroi, a larger fleet and military could signal that mankind has a military tradition, which is something that could garner respect/express commonalities.
OUTSIDER UPDATE => HALF LIFE 3 CONFIRMED?

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anticarrot
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Re: Page 87

Post by anticarrot »

Solemn wrote: 1. Loroi have mastered the plasma focus.
2. The Loroi have an unknown ship or ships waiting by the sidelines to some unknown purpose, armed with next-generation weapons.
3. The Loroi may have anticipated your manner of attack and have possibly been playing you, since they have an unknown ship of unknown capabilities acting towards unknown purposes which had never attempted to fight you despite clearly possessing the ability to do so.
4. The Loroi have expanded the war in an unanticipated direction, taking action against an unknown species, which, if conquered, could grant them unknown resources or technological advantages.
and/or
5. The Historians have decided to venture out of their own territory on combat-related errands; we're all going to die.
What about 6: Oh frell. Has one of my subordinates just done something amazingly stupid?

The Loroi are within reliable communication range of each other. The Umiak aren't. Too much dust in the way. A single small ship might have shot at the Bellermine (and then tried to cover it up by shooting it some more) without asking permission first, and without telling anyone afterwards.

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Re: Page 87

Post by dex drako »

@Ktrain

I don't think it would really matter because the treaty between humanity and the loroi should be written up long before the loroi ever get to earth or even the tanker Alex wanted to take them too. I believe that’s why the loroi gave Alex the power to make all the choices without the needs of the human council. ( http://well-of-souls.com/outsider/outsider061.html )

And that fits the direction of the story seems to be going in if you ask me.

The story doesn't seem to be about getting the Loroi back to earth it's about the loroi's reaction to Alex and how he changes the war. Honestly I don't see the Loroi having much interest in getting Alex back home anytime soon. They’re going to take him back home with them to learn more about him.

its another reason why some people like me don't feel the rest of the human race will play much of a role. I mean nothing points to them getting involved anytime soon.

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Re: Page 87

Post by Codius_Dak »

did anyone in page 12 notice that the plasma is cutting into the aft section not punching through...... that means that weapon has been firing for several seconds.... that means the question how long can the umiak sustain a plasma beam and are they able to train their cannon as it is firing?
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Re: Page 87

Post by Trantor »

anticarrot wrote:What about 6: Oh frell. Has one of my subordinates just done something amazingly stupid?

The Loroi are within reliable communication range of each other. The Umiak aren't. Too much dust in the way. A single small ship might have shot at the Bellermine (and then tried to cover it up by shooting it some more) without asking permission first, and without telling anyone afterwards.
Wouldn´t that have been recorded in the logs?
sapere aude.

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Re: Page 87

Post by Razor One »

Logs can be altered. If they're industrious enough to cover their tracks by blowing the ever loving hell out of the Bellarmine and sneaky enough to dodge reporting it, they'd have to be devious enough to also consider altering their logs.
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Re: Page 87

Post by Solemn »

What about 6: Oh frell. Has one of my subordinates just done something amazingly stupid?

The Loroi are within reliable communication range of each other. The Umiak aren't. Too much dust in the way. A single small ship might have shot at the Bellermine (and then tried to cover it up by shooting it some more) without asking permission first, and without telling anyone afterwards.
I wrote a response to this before page 88 went up. I had too much of a bad feeling about it to post it, and in light of page 88 my gut feelings were validated. But I'll post it behind spoiler tags now anyways, so that you can all laugh at me or something.
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Were I in 27's chair-equivalent, I would not really consider that a possibility.

The Umiak might often be out of communication range with one another, but that is not the case for the ship that destroyed the Bellarmine, since the Bellarmine's signal reached the Loroi (who were in close proximity to a number of Umiak vessels at the time) intact enough for Beryl to understand it. One of the duties of the ambush groups within the proplyd would be to report any contact, especially any contact that the rest of the fleet might be unaware of, otherwise the ambushers could become the ambushed. I would assume Umiak communication technology to be at least as powerful as humanity's, which means that an Umiak vessel striking an unknown alien ship had both the means and the motive to warn the rest of the fleet of a potential double-ambush or something; at the time, the vessel that killed the Bellarmine clearly felt that the Bellarmine had it coming, with the only question being if they felt that way out of forethought malice or simple ignorance. What's more, such an Umiak communique wouldn't serve to tell the Loroi of said Umiak ship's position, since their position was already compromised by the Bell's broadcast, and the ship clearly had the time and space to move on afterwards and presumably either leave the system or find another hiding spot. And I would think the Umiak would notice Umiak communiques even within the heat of battle, so the idea of the small Umiak ship in question having a communique that went unnoticed doesn't really seem likely; but I would not necessarily expect the Loroi to notice Umiak communications, because they didn't notice Bellarmine's presumably unencrypted transmission, which, to my mind, indicates they weren't looking.

That would also require an isolated destroyer-sized vessel, which, to my mind, would not be able to effectively perform its function; I'd think the Umiak fleet would be organized within groups, with a certain proximity to other groups, so as to enable a web of Umiak squads to collapse around any Loroi squadron that falls into the snare. An individual ship would be lucky to scuff a Loroi ship's armor, since, as you said, the Loroi ships would tend to stick together and keep their lines of communication open, and we've seen that a concentrated strike group can ward off several destroyers' worth of missiles and handle a large group of destroyers' beam weaponry with minimal damage. A group of five destroyers might be able to do some damage with the element of surprise on their side, but just one isolated destroyer with no ability to communicate or coordinate with ANY other Umiak ship? That sounds like a recipe for Defeat In Detail. Were the fleet spread out like that, I would think that instead of successfully vanquishing two previous strike groups, the Umiak here would be very slowly destroyed by one very annoyed strike group, over a very long time.

Maybe an Umiak ship with duties apart from combat--say, observation duty, to judge how effective their anti-farseer technology or their nebula ambush technique is--would be completely separate from the rest of the Umiak fleet, and would not have any reason to keep open communications with them, since its duty would rely on staying hidden and unnoticed in the proplyd even moreso than the rest of the Umiak fleet. Such a ship would indeed be almost obligated by its duty to fire on the Bellarmine if the Bell started transmitting friendship messages in close proximity to it, as that could draw Loroi attention to its position. But such a ship, by the nature of that duty, would probably not be one of 27's subordinates. He might even be unaware of its presence; if so, he would probably be unaware of the Bellarmine's initial transmission and the plasma focus discharges that cut it short.

If he WERE aware of the observation ship's existence and position, though, he would probably have a few subordinates paying special attention to that area, so as to better protect it and prevent the Loroi from discovering it, meaning that he would learn as soon as weapons were fired around there. So I think that if an Umiak ship had destroyed the Bellarmine, he'd know. Which leaves us with whether or not he'd pretend that he thought the Loroi destroyed it anyways.

He had no reason to suspect that the Loroi would have allowed a survivor (who could be confused about whether or not the Loroi destroyed the Bellarmine) onto their bridge, especially during a firefight. So if he's thinking that maybe some survivors got away and are listening in and could be confused on the matter, he'd probably assume they're in their own ships elsewhere in-system, undetected. That could also explain why he'd gather all his ships together but avoid engaging the Loroi, perhaps he expects some vast alien fleet to swoop out and coup-de-grace him immediately after his fleet and the Loroi finish slugging it out or something, but it doesn't really seem like a reasonable expectation. Especially since that would involve some huge alien power getting a presence in-system, while simultaneously having no idea about anything that has to do with the Loroi or the Umiak or their war, since, again, said aliens would know where the Bellarmine was thanks to Bell's being one of theirs and Bell's having sent that signal, and thus would be able to see the identifiable plasma focus barrage. It's easier to assume the Bell was a lone, isolated vessel that accidentally stumbled into a hornet's nest and that there are no survivors within earshot, so any lies would be tailored around Stillstorm rather than unknown hostile yet somehow also totally ignorant alien parties which are extremely unlikely to exist at all.

I think he's being honest. Opening talks with a blatant, obvious, transparent lie when you're talking to someone who automatically equates talking with lying doesn't seem like a beneficial course of action, and he'd know that his lie was obvious if he'd seen plasma focus fire signatures next to the Bellarmine's signal. One of the things about good liars is that when they lie, they first make sure that said lie is not immediately falsifiable, and if one of his ships had destroyed the Bell, he would not only most likely know, but most likely know that the Loroi would know, too, since the Loroi had discovered the Bell's remains and would have looked through their sensor logs to see what it was and why it was on fire. So if he were lying he'd have to be playing a pretty deep game with no real chance of successful deception, relying on information that is [i[not[/i] at his disposal, such as Jardin's presence on the Loroi bridge, to even have a long shot at anything meaningful, while simultaneously immediately endangering his bargaining position under every circumstance.

And in any case, even if he were lying about believing the Loroi had destroyed the Bellarmine, he would still be referring to Alex's distress transmission rather than the Bellarmine's transmission when he said "the alien signal." If he were lying, if anything he'd want to draw attention away from the Bellarmine's transmission which would be right next to the evidence that would prove him a liar, which would only serve to hurt his purpose. So, in summary, I feel that there's too much evidence against him for him to be the guilty party, because his actions don't make sense in the context of said evidence.
..I think you can all see what's wrong with that, but I'll spell it out here.
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27's comments make lone destroyers viable for a whole host of reasons I had not considered. This was partly because I had assumed that the Farseer's ability to see the Umiak vessels was simply dampened more or less equally for every ship (because the Loroi had caught sight of this fleet), whereas 27 implies that their Farseer countermeasures are complete, and that the Farseers can only see specific vessels that the Umiak wish for them to see. The entire premise of the argument was wrong, and none of it works any more. Lone destroyers now make sense, as they work as time-sinks, snares if they are unshielded against farseers and nasty surprises if they're shielded; lack of communications now make sense, for a variety of reasons; an Umiak ship with duties apart from combat yet still under 27's direct command now makes sense. Even lying about destroying the Bell despite knowing that you're lying and knowing that the enemy would know that you're lying now makes sense, as it will make the enemy hesitate during their decision-making process regarding your ultimatum (evaluating everything said much more carefully and all that) and that might be your true objective all along, since wasting the Storm-Witch's time is such a high strategic priority, what with the actual attack fleet still being within spitting distance of Azimol even according to 27's maybe-truth.
I don't know why I felt like posting that now, after I learned it was wrong, but I did and I won't un-post it.

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