The end of the war Thread

[Username]

As far as I can tell there isn't a thread on this particular topic so I just wanted to open the board to discussion.
We all know that Outsider isn't about the war ending or humanity's technological involvement in it, however that doesn't mean we can't have a hypothetical discussion on how it happens.

Assuming I figured out how to upload images:

SpoilerShow

By mid-2146, Sunfall's forces had advanced through Seren into the Steppes, and were on the verge of pushing into pre-war Umiak territory. Loroi hopes that the end of the war might be in sight diminished as the Umiak seemed to regain confidence and began to defend and counterattack more effectively, and the Loroi offensive ground to a standstill at Nelain. Now pressed against Umiak-inhabited systems, Loroi Farseers had a more difficult time detecting Umiak fleets moving within their own territory, and their ability to track and predict Umiak fleet movements suffered. After a series of battles at Nelain in which the Loroi held firm against major Umiak counterattacks, the Loroi were shocked to realize that these had only been a diversion to tie up Sunfall's forces while the Umiak launched massive pincer attacks through Donsil and Tedel. The Umiak had been assembling reserves and holding them in Umiak territory near populated planets, where the Loroi Farseers could not easily detect them. While Sunfall's main force was still engaged in heavy fighting at Nelain, Loroi reserve forces had to contend with one of the largest Umiak assaults of the war in a running fight that became known as the Battle of the Tasinei Ways. It is a tribute to the second-tier Loroi fleets thrown into the fighting (including the Emperor's personal squadron) that they were somehow able to prevent the Umiak from breaking out into undefended Loroi territory, but they could not keep the Umiak from completely cutting off Sunfall's forces in the Nelain salient. Isolated and deprived of supply, Sunfall's only option was to attempt to break through the encirclement, but unfortunately this meant attacking directly into the stream of Umiak reinforcements. Sunfall's fleet was overwhelmed and completely annihilated. Dispirited, having lost nearly a third of their active combat vessels and an entire generation of their best commanders along with the now-legendary Admiral Sunfall, the surviving Loroi forces laid waste to the remaining Steppes systems and fell back to defensive positions around Seren.

Sunfall found out the hard way that you don't simply lead a front line assault on the Umiak, they will just allow you to be cut off. The way I see is there are only two ways to beat that kind of opponent.

1. Across the board offense.(not an option for the Loroi for obvious reasons)

2. A flanking surprise attack.
This is the way only way I could see the Loroi winning the war (short of another group of humans showing up with their we win card)

If the Loroi could map an effective route with the Orgus charts from Humanity and had a strong enough reserve built up with a strong supply line prepared could they do it ? Theoretical the least heavily fortified systems would be at the rear of the Umiak realm (where they are expanding and still only exploring) and all it would take would be to lock down every system they took so that by the time someone found out it would be too late.

I guess the plan could fall flat if the Umiak had a massive reserve fleet to combat exactly such a situation. ?

[fredgiblet]

I don't think an across the board offensive is out of the question. A FAST one probably is, but a gradual creep forward one system at a time is plausible. You just have to do it WW1-style, overwhelming force in one area then entrench again and recover, repeat until the enemy collapses.

[GeoModder]

To me it looks like the Umiak have the habit of strong/overwhelming fleet forces on the outskirts of their territory. Look at what happened to the Orgus. Appearantly their territory was taken in a matter of weeks. That doesn't sound like the other borders of the Umiak Hierarchy (the ones besides the Steppes frontlines) only have a token force.

Besides, we really have no idea at all what's happening on the other end of the Hierarchy. For all we know there's a perpetual border clash going on somewhere at the Periphery towards the Orion Arm as well.

[Username]

@ fredgiblet

Maybe, The problem is that the Loroi simply don't have the industrial capacity to support such an undertaking. To say nothing of the immense advantage that would give the Umiak. Who could undoubtedly punch numerous holes in such a line. That's why the Loroi have lasted this long. Interdicting them before they can mass like that.


@ GeoModder

But I thought the Orgus was a simple trading race. I can't imagine they would have anything that would hold up to even a small umiak force.

I guess that's the 64,000 dollar question, just how big is the Hierarchy at this point.

Maybe the only way either side can win is to field a super-weapon or two.

[fredgiblet]

@ fredgiblet

Maybe, The problem is that the Loroi simply don't have the industrial capacity to support such an undertaking. To say nothing of the immense advantage that would give the Umiak. Who could undoubtedly punch numerous holes in such a line. That's why the Loroi have lasted this long. Interdicting them before they can mass like that.

Perhaps. My understanding is that the Loroi are building large reserves for an offensive, they don't really have much choice in the matter as staying on the defensive will simply result in them being bled to death, IIRC their morale is already collapsing due to the lack of success in the war. I believe the Loroi have a positive K:D ratio and that one of the things that they are very concerned about is that the Umiak shouldn't have this many ships available given the rate they are being destroyed. It's possible that the Umiak aren't as strong as they appear and their own reserves are depleted, if that's the case then an offensive that requires a response from the Umiak could very well be the beginning of the end for the Umiak if the Loroi can come out victorious.

[Mr.Tucker]

From what I understand, the stalemate has a few reasons: the Umiak can't attack without suffering severe casualties, due to the Loroi farseers. The Loroi have trouble going offensive because their farseers are hampered in enemy territory. The Umiak have superior industrial capacity (and larger territory as is implied in the series and apparent from the map), but their movements are predicted and they suffer monumental casualties by attacking fortified worlds, because the Loroi KNOW the're coming. Humanity comes in by offering a backdoor into unfortified territory, and a base of operations (though still pretty far from either empire's core worlds), and is forced to speculate that to reach an advantageous situation ( since their tech is still behind). If the Umiak can find a way to reduce the effectiveness of farseers however, it's the end of the Loroi.....and whoever is allied with them. And I don't think it's the Loroi themselves who have morale problems (stout warrior culture, etc) , but their....ahem.....''allies'' in the Union.

[fredgiblet]

Stout warrior culture that is, for the first time ever, utterly failing to defeat an enemy (that isn't other Loroi) and taking massive casualties in the process. Stout warrior culture that is facing slow destruction, putting their long-held belief in their own superiority under close scrutiny. Stout warrior culture that hasn't had a major victory in 15 years (and THAT one ended with a major part of their fleet destroyed). If anything that culture is a liability at this point as having such a successful history makes the current failure to progress all the more biting.

[Mr.Tucker]

The Loroi presented so far in the series seem pretty stoic about their situation. They seem to feel that their lack of success isn't due to some inherent disadvantage their species or culture has, but due to tactical/political errors. It's just the vibe I'm getting, and seems to be only their opinion. The Union races on the other hand have relegated all military and policing duties to the Loroi. If the Loroi aren't up to spec then I can easily imagine them asking themselves if their course of action was correct. To a warrior culture, stagnation seems just a temporary setback before the final, inevitable victory (Hitler still thought he could win the war in late 1944). Civilians tend to be more realistic.....

[fredgiblet]

I'm not certain what you're expecting them to do, cry in the halls? Low morale doesn't have to take the form of anarchy or ceaseless displays of emotion, it can simply manifest as a lack of attention to detail and slowed responses that degrade performance without being blatant, especially in a service that's as well trained and disciplined as I assume the Loroi to be, doing your job despite your morale seems to be likely to be expected, though doing it WELL can't really be enforced as easily.

Hitler was also a military retard and the primary reason the Germans failed. Most of the rest of the German military leadership was FAR more realistic about it.

[Mr.Tucker]

Perhaps my example of Hitler was a bit off. A better one would be ancient Sparta. They rode into battle against the Thebans at Lectra with superior numbers and superior reputation. They lost, but continued to be inflexible and stout in their beliefs of superiority. Thus began their decline.....
The Loroi are warriors. ALL of them, even the civilians. They do their jobs as they were brought up. If you're stoic enough to even go to work every day, despite the impending doom of complete extinction, then it's because you don't really believe it will happen, or have faith in your military leadership (or both) . Trainnig can only go so far, but childhood upbringing goes a lot longer (and the Loroi are instilled with an unwavering belief in their leadership and beligerent philosophy).

[Nemo]

The sole examples of Loroi behavior and morale in comic so far are aboard the 51st Strike Group. She may not have meant to be boastful, but Beryl took pride in their success rate. Other groups with higher attrition rates would necessarily have different outlooks. The reserve and homeguard fleets have presumably only seen clean up actions against forces whittled down by the Steppes would likely have another. It may be projecting human psychology to an inhuman environment, but it would be sensible to think the strike groups have lower morale and the reserve fleets think the Union's victory assured.

Its hard to paint an entire faction in a broad brush.

[Arioch]

I'm not certain what you're expecting them to do, cry in the halls?

Moreover, they're certainly not going to do so in front of an alien diplomat. But that doesn't mean the problems aren't there. I'm reminded of a passage from the Band of Brothers series:

The morning after the shelling that killed Muck and Penkala, I saw a soldier try to dig a foxhole with his bare hands. He didn't notice that he'd torn off all his fingernails. I got him out of there quickly; not for his sake, but for ours. Fear is poison in combat. Something we all felt but you just didn't show it. You can't. It's destructive, and it's contagious.

The barrages on January 3rd and the shelling on January 9th marked the low point in the war for many of the men in E Company. Even then, very few actually broke. But I knew the terror of those shellings and the unrelenting pressure we'd been under since we got to Bastogne could take their toll in other ways. I was afraid the men would lose focus, suffer a drop in morale. And that was dangerous, especially in combat. More of which lay in store for us.

I think that one of the most important large-scale consequences of low morale is the erosion of confidence in leadership, and especially so in a militaristic culture. The leader of a losing army usually isn't going to remain the leader for very long, and when the leader of the army is also the head of state, that can mean serious problems. Greywind's administration is under intense and growing pressure to go on the offensive.

Hitler was also a military retard and the primary reason the Germans failed. Most of the rest of the German military leadership was FAR more realistic about it.

And yet, they didn't do anything about it. I think one of the remarkable things about WWII is the fact that a military dictator could remain in power during nearly four years of unrelenting military defeat. I think it says a lot about Hitler's intense popular support, as well as the inflexible Prussian code of honor of the top military officers, many of whom preferred suicide to disobedience of a leader they never liked in the first place.

Stalin's survival during the disastrous first few years of the war is also remarkable, though perhaps not as unexpected, as Stalin was well known for his paranoia and purges of any of his subordinates that demonstrated ambition of any sort. But I wonder how much longer he could have held on were it not for the timely victory at Stalingrad.

[Mr.Tucker]

I also to think that in a telepathic species, any morale problems would also be quickly apparent (especially in the commanding officers). Fear is contagious and rapidly becomes pervasive.

But to answer the thread, Humanity is presented with 2 possibilities: ally with the Umiak (unlikely since we're far more similar to the Loroi, and what little we know of the shells are horror stories from desperate refugees) or ally with the Loroi.

All fine and dandy except for the fact that we present a unique dilemma for them:
1. We're uniquely immune to their telepathy, which changes the way they must relate to us radically. They can't control, cow, or banter with us as effectively as with the other species.
2. We seem to shake some of their and their allies long held religious and historical beliefs (apparent from the crazy Barsam preacher/captains' speech)
3. We occupy a crucial location. Which means (given 1) that even the slightest hint of us allying with the Umiak (and human society is full of dissenting opinions about ANYTHING) would send alarm bells ringing in the head of Emperor Greywind (which is bad). The Union has accepted species based on origin (soia), physiological quirks (golim, pipolsid), or outright subjugation. We're not advanced enough to be regarded as an independant ally, but we're rapidly advancing. The Loroi can't give us too big a carrot (technology), because we may end up a threat to them (1,2,3), so they may feel compelled to enlarge their stick (har!). It all depends on Jardin (still better then a politician or diplomatic team).Also, ''scorched earth'': they would most certainly atomize us than leave us to the Umiak (even as allies, i doubt they'd have a second thought).
Ideally the status of independent ally would be best, but unlike the Nissek or Historians we can't back it up through arms, so we have to take advantage of the Unions relative weakness, while not provoking the Loroi. Time will tell.

[fredgiblet]

And yet, they didn't do anything about it. I think one of the remarkable things about WWII is the fact that a military dictator could remain in power during nearly four years of unrelenting military defeat. I think it says a lot about Hitler's intense popular support, as well as the inflexible Prussian code of honor of the top military officers, many of whom preferred suicide to disobedience of a leader they never liked in the first place.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassination_attempts_on_Adolf_Hitler
There were a few who tried to do something about it. Most of these are Germans IIRC. That's also just the assassination attempts, I'm sure there was a lot of subversion of his orders done to try and reduce his impact once it became clear how terrible he was.

Stalin's survival during the disastrous first few years of the war is also remarkable, though perhaps not as unexpected, as Stalin was well known for his paranoia and purges of any of his subordinates that demonstrated ambition of any sort. But I wonder how much longer he could have held on were it not for the timely victory at Stalingrad.

I don't think that's so surprising, I'm not an expert on the Barbarossa-era Soviets but in the case of Stalin I don't think much of that can be laid directly at his feet except for the officer purges before the wars. I'm also fairly certain that Stalin didn't get too involved in day-to-day operations, so any failures could be laid at the feet of his subordinates instead of him.

[Arioch]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassinat ... olf_Hitler
There were a few who tried to do something about it. Most of these are Germans IIRC.

I think you could easily compile a list as long for each of the last dozen or so US Presidents, so I'm not sure this list really says anything meaningful about German public opinion as a whole. I'm aware of a few serious plots, most notably the von Stauffenberg "Valkyrie" bombing in 1944 which very nearly succeeded, but this is a case where "almost" carries no weight.

I don't think that's so surprising, I'm not an expert on the Barbarossa-era Soviets but in the case of Stalin I don't think much of that can be laid directly at his feet except for the officer purges before the wars. I'm also fairly certain that Stalin didn't get too involved in day-to-day operations, so any failures could be laid at the feet of his subordinates instead of him.

That's true, but Stalin was incredibly unpopular before the war, especially in the Ukraine and the south and many areas that fell early to the Germans. If the Germans had come in as liberators instead of as genocidal maniacs, I think Russian resistance could well have completely crumbled in the first year of the offensive. Stalin was just lucky that Hitler was an even worse option than he was.

[Username]

3. We occupy a crucial location. Which means (given 1) that even the slightest hint of us allying with the Umiak (and human society is full of dissenting opinions about ANYTHING) would send alarm bells ringing in the head of Emperor Greywind (which is bad). The Union has accepted species based on origin (soia), physiological quirks (golim, pipolsid), or outright subjugation. We're not advanced enough to be regarded as an independant ally, but we're rapidly advancing. The Loroi can't give us too big a carrot (technology), because we may end up a threat to them (1,2,3), so they may feel compelled to enlarge their stick (har!). It all depends on Jardin (still better then a politician or diplomatic team).Also, ''scorched earth'': they would most certainly atomize us than leave us to the Umiak (even as allies, i doubt they'd have a second thought).
Ideally the status of independent ally would be best, but unlike the Nissek or Historians we can't back it up through arms, so we have to take advantage of the Unions relative weakness, while not provoking the Loroi. Time will tell.

Once we make deal with either side it will be pretty much impossible for us to go back on it. Both races are probably going to make occupation a primary objective before any stipulations can be made.

[Mr.Tucker]

Once we make deal with either side it will be pretty much impossible for us to go back on it. Both races are probably going to make occupation a primary objective before any stipulations can be made.

Occupying an ally doesn't seems that good a deal for the ally though.....

[Username]

Occupying an ally doesn't seems that good a deal for the ally though.....

HA HA HA

In case you hadn't noticed the Loroi, as friendly and a fitting choice as they might be for us, would never allow a race of our tech level to maintain sovereignty. There just isn't any common sense to it.

For raisins!

1. We aren't powerful enough to defend our own territory. As of opening up to the Loroi we become a strategic draw of resources anyway so why not go whole-hog and setup a governor's mansion (complete with Umiak blaster 9000's)

2. They automatically don't trust any non-Soia species that aren't at least on their tech level or above (Nissek, Historians)

3. They need a strong force here any way to prepare for the inevitable arrival of the front lines.

[Mr.Tucker]

Occupying an ally doesn't seems that good a deal for the ally though.....

HA HA HA

In case you hadn't noticed the Loroi, as friendly and a fitting choice as they might be for us, would never allow a race of our tech level to maintain sovereignty. There just isn't any common sense to it.

For raisins!

1. We aren't powerful enough to defend our own territory. As of opening up to the Loroi we become a strategic draw of resources anyway so why not go whole-hog and setup a governor's mansion (complete with Umiak blaster 9000's)

2. They automatically don't trust any non-Soia species that aren't at least on their tech level or above (Nissek, Historians)

3. They need a strong force here any way to prepare for the inevitable arrival of the front lines.

There are some things in Humanity's favor:
1) The Nissek have ambitions of an empire. The Historians can't be trusted because they don't trust anyone themselves. Humanity has none of those....drawbacks.
2) The Loroi are stretched pretty thin. They may transit our territory to invade the Umiak (those reserves must be for something), but we're still pretty far from the Loroi homeworlds.
3) The Loroi don't trust people easily, but they don't try to actively antagonize them either. They may also realize that by induction into the Union, our influence may grow strong in the future. Also the risk of throwing us in the arms of the Umiak would be monumental, and a cleanup of Human space would take many resources away from the front.

They don't want front lines here. Or any more static warfare (stagnation is death vs the Shells). They wanna gut the Hierarchy.

[Mr.Tucker]

Ok, i got a nagging idea. Since the Loroi would presumably hesitate to trade technology with the TCA (mistrust and such), and so would the other species of the Union (to not attract the ire of the blue babes), wouldn't it be possible to trade tech with the Nissek or another non-aligned species? (Mannandi, Arekka) . Two problems would be evident:
1) access: their territories are far/inaccessible
2) what could the TCA give them in return
Obviously all while trying to keep the big political actors in the dark.