Rasayana wrote: ↑Mon Apr 05, 2021 3:18 pm
Do we have anyone here which actually know how to do computations in betting (without a bookmaker which always take a share)?
Lets say that I am sure that a coin is fair, with a 1:1 odds of comming up heads, while my friend is sure that the coin is not fair, with an odds 2:1 of comming up heads, then how much money should I put in if my friend is willing to bet $100?
What if there was a third friend who is sure that the odds are 1:3 of coming up heads?
I don't really know the calculations.
But, a bookmaker also considers the amount of bets being made on the one side or another.
Because he uses the looser's money to pay the winners, and still needs something left over for his own cost and lottery taxes (if he doesn't deduct them from the winners payout - depending on law).
As basic principle, betting odds don't add up to "1". Just the amount of collected money and money paid out don't fully add up (but they get close, all things considered).
There will be many more people betting on a sure winner than on an unlikely winner.
(Football, Germany vs. Northern Macedonia).
The bookmaker will at the start offer a bet like
1.25 : 1 if Germany wins (you "win" 1.25 € if you pay 1 € - in your win your initial payment is calculated)
250 : 1 if Northern Macedonia wins (payout 250€ for every 1 € you bet).
Because the bookmaker expects may 1 bet on Macedonia for every 200 bets on Germany. (payouts would be 250 for a win of macedonia, and 200*1.25=250 for a win of Germany). (
Numbers don't match! not enough income! only 201 income in this case!)
Now, it may happen no-one bets on Macedonia, (or plenty more bet on Germany, instead of Macedonia) and Germany wins, then the bookmaker will make a loss. So once they find no-one (or ot enough) bets on Macedonia, they will amend the bets, to be (e.g.)
1.001:1 for Germany
490:1 for Macedonia.
If now the people start betting, the betting guys expect to collect 500 and for on average 1 betting for Macedonia (payout 490), and 499 betting on Germany (payout 499.499).
The betting odds are therefore amended by the expected relation of number of bets on "Germany" vs "Macedonia".
So, in Germany you'd likely find more people betting on average on Germany than in Britain, and again more Macedonia bets in Macedonia.
You'd need to shift the numbers again, according to which country you're in.
Or which part of the city.