Drone Use

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Overkill Engine
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Re: Drone Use

Post by Overkill Engine »

Urist wrote:
Sun Jun 16, 2024 10:31 pm

"Internet-enabled" devices are an interesting case where 99% of the people who actually design & program them (or otherwise know how they work) flatly refuse to ever use them. The only people who use most "Internet of Things" devices are people who are functionally tech-illiterate.
Yup, I specifically bought a "dumb TV" and refuse to buy any sort of other appliance that has wireless access. Way too easy to sabotage or subvert.

Frankly I think wireless access capability on something like vehicles should be illegal. Doing otherwise is just keeping them one malicious actor away from being an improvised drone weapon.

Now add on that most people also walk around with the security hole known as a smartphone and it gets dystopic pretty damn fast once there is sufficient IOT saturation.

And then get into how so many people are also putting their entire lively-hoods on cloud storage with no (personally controlled) backup, which is basically paying someone to one day decide to hold your data hostage. And it enables data theft like no one's business once someone managed to make LLM tools for just that (see AI art programs, etc).

Tech has become very convenient to the masses in the last 20 years and that's a very bad thing. Literally building the fucking Matrix around us.

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Urist
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Re: Drone Use

Post by Urist »

Overkill Engine wrote:
Mon Jun 17, 2024 4:44 am
Tech has become very convenient to the masses in the last 20 years and that's a very bad thing. Literally building the fucking Matrix around us.
Mhmm. And on top of all of this, there's the push for all-digital currency and all-electric heating, transportation, the works. Just wait until some Belarusian script kiddie can hack a house's "Smart Device Nexus" and disable their car, disable their stove, disable their computers, disable their heating, disable their telephone access, and possibly even unlock all the doors (I'm still flatly astonished that people bought those internet-enabled door lock devices). That'll be fun.
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Overkill Engine
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Re: Drone Use

Post by Overkill Engine »

Yeah I just got a vehicle registration renewal in the mail today, and with it a flyer touting the new push for cashless toll booths in the area.

Fuck that. That shit's just an invitation for someone to fuck up and then you are stuck fighting a whole shit ton of spurious toll charges after the fact, and no government is particularly adept at admitting fault. Cash might be slower, but at least they can't yank that out of your wallet without your consent nearly as easily.

Mk_C
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Re: Drone Use

Post by Mk_C »

Arioch wrote:
Mon Jun 10, 2024 10:34 pm
Small aerial drones are currently extremely effective because their use is still very new and there are few cost-effective counters to them. We're already starting to see better counters appear, and I think this will lead to an arms race that will see a dramatic reduction in the successful use of cheap drones. Drones will have to get more sophisticated to overcome these counters, there will be more sophisticated countermeasures, and so on,
I severely doubt it - we know since the Cold War that a good ECM cover on land is inherently quite hard to achieve (nearly impossible for satellite uplink platforms), and it inevitably takes a plenty of quite vulnerable equipment, while the whole element that made drones take off is their convenience - easy to deliver, easy to deploy, low reliance on cumbersome and vulnerable systems, minimal logistical footprint. We can see in real time that even rather sophisticated opponents swallowing the cost of certain casualties rather than deploying a solid blanket network of countermeasures, as the latter option is too cumbersome, too slow and too vulnerable. We'd need ECMs that are as cheap, simple and effective as the drones themselves to make them a good counter, and certain laws of physics are kinda working against us on that.
Arioch wrote:
Mon Jun 10, 2024 10:34 pm
until drones are no longer cheaper than conventional "smart" munitions.
The only substantial differences between drones and "conventional smart munitions" in the same range and payload bracket as it is now are conveniences of consumer industry, vastly out-scaling any military production, and the drones' lower demands in terms of a launch system. Infantry gaining aerial recon and limited air strike capabilities without relying on artillery systems or aircraft is what made them so convenient for the certain ongoing conflict. I'd rather expect more smart munitions imitating drones in using massively scaled consumer elements in their construction, rather than drones losing their edge. The potential in weaponizing civilian systems is glorious and I love the social implications.
Last edited by Mk_C on Tue Jun 18, 2024 5:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Mk_C
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Re: Drone Use

Post by Mk_C »

Overkill Engine wrote:
Mon Jun 17, 2024 4:44 am
Tech has become very convenient to the masses in the last 20 years and that's a very bad thing. Literally building the fucking Matrix around us.
The thing about dystopian Matrix-things is that they are all perfectly centralized and stable for some reason. The beautiful element about the vision of technology being used to find out anything about anyone anywhere at any time and doing anything to them is that eventually anyone can actually do it.

Demarquis
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Re: Drone Use

Post by Demarquis »

@Tamri
"There are no such systems now. The maximum that exists now is multi-node relay, when the final machine is controlled by an operator through a chain of intermediary machines, and a complex autopilot capable of performing complex flight missions in predictably changing conditions."

I assure you, although they are not currently deployed in combat, such system have flown: https://defbrief.com/2021/12/13/watch-d ... fset-test/

And have even been launched from aircraft: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Perdix_(drone)

Research is ongoing: https://thedebrief.org/pentagon-secretl ... -defenses/

They are not multi-node systems with dozens of of human operators supporting one final platform: https://fieldrobotics.net/Field_Robotic ... ol3_26.pdf

Electronic Warfare (by which I assume you mean "jamming") is a distinct danger to swarms, which rely on drone to drone communication to operate effectively. But individual swarm members can be programmed to retreat and regroup when they lose communications, and, as Ariel says above, jamming equipment is expensive, more potentially more expensive than the swarms of cheap drones they would be trying to jam. This is indeed why drones continue to be used in Ukraine.

Remember that one has to jam the entire swarm simultaneously in order to neutralize the entire swarm simultaneously, and this more complex and expensive than you make it sound.

"Why are modern drones so small and energy efficient? Because “on board” they only have a motor and equipment control board, a spatial positioning system (NOT orientation!) and a transceiver. Everything else is located on the base, and everything the drone works with is instructions for movement or adjustments to the operation of the equipment.

If we try to stuff a processor with memory into it and load it with all the tasks that the operator is currently solving... "

It's becoming clear that you do not understand how swarm AI works. (You forgot, BTW, weapon payload and fuel, but ok). All we are adding is a microchip, a few instructions on how to respond to sensory inputs, and there is no need to duplicate what current drone operators are doing. That's the whole point--swarm behavior is emergent, it results from the interaction of large numbers of comparatively simple units, each of which are hardly any heavier, or undertaking more work, than normal drones already are.

Here is a nice primer on how emergent intelligence functions in both biological and man-made systems: https://medium.com/@msameim181/the-stra ... 5b884ebb36

Again, they have already tested these things, over-heating was not a problem. They should have roughly the same duration as other drones their size.

Tamri
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Re: Drone Use

Post by Tamri »

Demarquis wrote:
Wed Jun 19, 2024 2:24 am
A-a-and this is literally what I was writing about. What you brought, besides the first video (although it has so much less to do with Swarm AI than any news about processors for AI) are projects that have been going on since the beginning of the 10s, and still do not give clear results... like any fundamental research at the beginning of its journey.

These are still drones controlled by an operator from a base, only now the operator does not control one drone, but leads a group with him. And yes, this is still a multi-node relay of the base signal, only now not along the chain, but directly to the slave group. This is very characteristically seen in the video, where we do not see any group actions of drones other than movement - which has long been “hardwired” into the drone itself and requires the operator only to indicate the direction and parameters of movement... which is demonstrated in the video.
This is indeed why drones continue to be used in Ukraine.
Drones continue to be used because 100% electronic warfare coverage (which is economically impossible) will leave their own units without any communication at all (which is absolutely unacceptable in conditions of active combat), despite the fact that even the best electronic warfare installations do not have a very large range of action, by war standards... despite the fact that in working conditions they are relatively easy to find with any electronic reconnaissance station. And the short range means that they are in the artillery range...

However, there are already “trench” electronic warfare installations that create a “dome” over the squad’s position, models mounted on vehicles and even individual “backpacks” that prevent a grenade from being dropped on you from above or give a chance to evade the FPV drone. They are not cheap yet, but they are comparable to good drones at this time.

And this is only the beginning of active counteraction to “shield and sword.”
Remember that one has to jam the entire swarm simultaneously in order to neutralize the entire swarm simultaneously, and this more complex and expensive than you make it sound.
This is wrong. Precisely because the Swarm does not have a base or operator, it is limited by its own resources. Each node is a part of its resource, and knocking nodes out of the network wastes the resources of the Swarm as a whole, and with them its efficiency.

I repeat, we do not operate on Neyman’s Swarm; in our case, it is limited by the available resources and the scope of the task.
It's becoming clear that you do not understand how swarm AI works.
No, this means that it’s just you who don’t understand how it works. First of all, the Swarm's network IS NOT PHYSICAL! Real-time distributed computing is powerful, but only in a stable network environment. But a stable network “in the field” is a myth, as anyone who has worked in the field will tell you. This means hello to data loss, desynchronization-reconnections and other “joys” of field communications... And if for a human operator this is only an inconvenience of orientation, experienced pilots manage to fly drones almost blindly and hit targets by adjusting the reconnaissance drone operator sitting next to him, hovering further away - then for Swarm AI this can literally mean a lag in detecting and locking on a target, as well as a drop in accuracy.

Secondly, with the fact that the Swarm AI drones will be “like regular drones, plus a processor” - you’re pretty hiperbolised. Modern drones are able to independently return to base when the signal is lost or the charge is depleted, and also avoid obstacles (although absolutely everyone disables this function to save charge...), but constructing a combat route and hitting a given, but not previously captured, target in a floating location - this task is several orders of magnitude more difficult.

In addition, the operator does not just press the sticks and make the drone whiz-whiz. He has the terrain in his head, a map of the combat mission in front of him, reconnaissance drone operators and a wing commander, whose task is to respond to emergency situations, are sitting nearby. Shifting all this to the Swarm AI itself will require connecting them with the same intelligence officers and training it to read intelligence data at the level of the same operator. And it’s also long and tedious to train his reactions to emergency situations, up to the level of a wing commander... and I haven’t yet mentioned the need to load defragmented map and combat mission data onto the Swarm's vehicles, coupled with the invention of a way without dumping all the data on each vehicle eliminate the risk of losing important fragments in the event of a node destruction or communication failure.

All this will require either releasing a really huge number of drones for any trivial task, which in the case of the traditional model could be done by three people and a couple of drones... or providing each node with sufficient power so that they can work effectively even in small quantities.

So far there is not a single hint that at least some of these problems are nearing resolution.

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SaintofM
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Re: Drone Use

Post by SaintofM »

Lets keep this civil. I don't want a repeat of my Mecha thread.

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Urist
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Re: Drone Use

Post by Urist »

I'm a bit late to the reply, but I'd like to point out that military technology across almost all fields has bounced back and forth on the axis of "large number of small units" to "small number of large units" quite a few times over the last few centuries... and the extremes at either end have essentially never yet turned out to be optimal.

A small number of armored knights are strong, a massive number of levied peasants is strong, but a mid-sized army of mostly-trained soldiers is stronger. A few heavy tanks are strong, a swarm of tankettes is strong, but a middling number of medium tanks is stronger. A pair of battleships is strong, a horde of torpedo-boats is strong, but a diversified fleet of warships is stronger. And so on and so forth.

So I *very strongly* suspect (as a robotics engineer; drones are my field) that the concept of swarm robotics will be seen in the future in approximately the way contemporary naval historians view the 'Jeune Ecole' school of the late 1800s: they had some interesting ideas, but throwing a gigantic number of small warships into battle turned out to be less-efficient than the other alternatives. There's a reason why militaries the world over are moving more towards the 'robot assistants' model (goes by different names in different countries, obviously) where a human operator directs a large number of semi-autonomous military robots, taking on most of the high-level work himself and leaving the robots to the simpler tasks.
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bunnyboy
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Re: Drone Use

Post by bunnyboy »

I would like to mention one military use of swarms. Interactive minefields.

Someone clears a path. The rest compensates by taking new positions.
The minefield can also resuffled by command or timer.
They could also made inert or path can be opened with "friend" signal.
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SVlad
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Re: Drone Use

Post by SVlad »

Why bother with minefields then, just use drones ambush directly. Drone sitting idle in grass, when enemy approach, it lifts up and attack target.

Drone ambush already exists, but with manual control. Also exists drones with target lock, that can guide itself into target automatically.
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SaintofM
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Re: Drone Use

Post by SaintofM »

SVlad wrote:
Sat Sep 14, 2024 2:10 pm
Why bother with minefields then, just use drones ambush directly. Drone sitting idle in grass, when enemy approach, it lifts up and attack target.

Drone ambush already exists, but with manual control. Also exists drones with target lock, that can guide itself into target automatically.
Would this be kinda like spider mines in Star Craft then?

I would also question the use of minefields in space. Its a third dimensional playing field that takes full advantage of not just the X and Y but also the Z. Unless there is a noticeably safer rout for convoys in FTL I'm not sure where a mind field could work. Also, would have sufficient tech to differentiate friend from foe?

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Urist
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Re: Drone Use

Post by Urist »

The utility of a minefield in space warfare depends rather on how one defines "minefield."

"Contact-triggered explosive hidden underground" is obviously less-than-useful in space (you're never going to get within 'contact' range of an enemy ship, you can't really hide, and there's no 'ground' to be under), but "concealed autonomous weapon" might be. That would be something like an array of single-shot Surface-to-Orbit autonomous weapons platforms installed underneath a moon or planet's surface, hidden enough that they're going to be hard to spot until they fire. Just like IRL current minefields, you assume that each platform will only get one shot off before being swatted by bombardment, but at least you can make an enemy flotilla in orbit lose some ships to attrition.

Of course, the problem there is that that only works if your enemy is getting close enough to the planet without bombarding it heavily first. You can probably only pull that trick once or twice before the enemy just starts nuking your worlds flat before ever entering STO weapons range (as Arioch has pointed out in his arguments about why mines play no part in Outsider warfare).

Essentially, space warfare (using Outsider as a theoretical example) has the problem where the weapons systems powerful enough to threaten a warship at anything other than absolute point-blank range are *also* expensive enough that you can't really manufacture them in mass quantities to leave them lying around as 'mines.' For the amount of resources you'd spend to put, say, 10 autonomous Blaster platforms in orbit of your planet, you could outfit ~5 or so warships... and the warships are simply far more useful for the overall war.
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