Page 194: partial functionality

[QuakeIV]

Figured I'd do this since I wanted to commentate on it.



Dude needs to stop freaking out every time someone catches him messing with the tablet. Going to get obvious at some point.

[RedDwarfIV]

Plot twist: The Construct wasn't saying the Loroi are secretly evil.

Makes sense.

[QuakeIV]

Yeah, it is seemingly just saying 'be careful monkey boy they aren't as friendly as they are trying to make themselves look'.

[Ithekro]

Partially functional human tech, fully functional human? Surrounded by distrustful Loroi, though some seem at least sincere in their concerns over the human or their own situation (the pilots seem fine with him).

[Arent]

Well, someone shot down the Bellarmine. So someone apparently wants to prevent contact between Loroi & Humans.

Dunno whether it's the Historians or another player we don't know yet.

[grixit]

I have an old phone. I took the sim out and use it as a little tablet. Every time i turn it on, i have to remove up to 4 programs that somehow installed themselves since last time. So apparently here in our pre stellar age, there are already examples of powerdown intrusion. None of them have warned me against getting too cozy with cute aliens, though.

[boldilocks]

"Keep playing dumb, dumbass, really play to your strengths."

Gee, thanks, computerman.

[Turrosh Mak]

Place your bets, ladies and gentlemen. Which Loroi will "go off" on our hero? Fireblade 1-2, Tempo 3-2, Flint 2-1, Reed 3-1, Cloud 4-1, Spiral 4-1, Talon 5-1, Beryl 8-1. Place your bets quickly. The wheel is in motion and the ball is about to drop...

Edit - corrected betting odds display style

[hack]

... the ball is about to drop...

Hawt.

[boldilocks]

Is alex about to make a stupid move and reveal more than he wants to because he feels a kinship with another pilot?

[Rasayana]

Place your bets, ladies and gentlemen. Which Loroi will "go off" on our hero? Fireblade 1:2, Tempo 3:2, Reed 2:1, Flint 3:1, Spiral 4:1, Talon 5:1, Cloud 5:1, Beryl 8:1. Place your bets quickly, the ball is about to drop...

I am usually not a betting man, but I think that the conditions should be as clear as possible. To start with, what would we mean with "go off"? I am not a native speaker, so I took some help from the internet and most meanings were nonsensical. Do you mean loosing ones temper? In that case, I guess that you mean some display which is significantly worse than what Fireblad have already displayed. So what would be a resonable criteria for "going off".

Also, I think that your math is off. For example, If the odds for "Fireblade being the first to go off" is

oFi = 1:2

then the probability of "Fireblade being the first to go off" is

pFi = 1/3 ~= 33%

By the same reasoning, the probabilities of Tempo (pTe), Reed (pR), Flint (pFl), Spiral (pS), Talon (pTa), Cloud (pC), Beryl (pB), would be:

pTe = 3/5 = 60%
pR = 2/3 ~= 67%
pFl = 3/4 = 75%
pS = 4/5 = 80%
pTa = 5/6 ~= 83%
pC = 5/6 ~= 83%
pB = 8/9 ~= 89%

Adding up to about 570% chance of one of them being the first one to go of.
If all chances were even, they would all have odds of 1:7, or probabilities of 1/8.


**********************************************************
Do we have anyone here which actually know how to do computations in betting (without a bookmaker which always take a share)?

Lets say that I am sure that a coin is fair, with a 1:1 odds of comming up heads, while my friend is sure that the coin is not fair, with an odds 2:1 of comming up heads, then how much money should I put in if my friend is willing to bet $100?

What if there was a third friend who is sure that the odds are 1:3 of coming up heads?

[Rasayana]

Also, what would we do if there is a draw? If two or several people goes off at the same time?

[Rasayana]

Is alex about to make a stupid move and reveal more than he wants to because he feels a kinship with another pilot?

The academy chess champion? I doubt it.

https://well-of-souls.com/outsider/outsider094.html

[Werra]

Chess champions aren't known for their good social skills. A pretty face could fish herself out quite a lot of information.

[Turrosh Mak]

Place your bets, ladies and gentlemen. Which Loroi will "go off" on our hero? Fireblade 1:2, Tempo 3:2, Reed 2:1, Flint 3:1, Spiral 4:1, Talon 5:1, Cloud 5:1, Beryl 8:1. Place your bets quickly, the ball is about to drop...

I am usually not a betting man, but I think that the conditions should be as clear as possible. To start with, what would we mean with "go off"? I am not a native speaker, so I took some help from the internet and most meanings were nonsensical. Do you mean loosing ones temper? In that case, I guess that you mean some display which is significantly worse than what Fireblad have already displayed. So what would be a resonable criteria for "going off".

(snip of probability math unrelated to betting odds)

I am sorry I confused you. I was writing in the style of a roulette dealer cajoling customers to place bets. "Go off" would be a display of anger with or without physical violence. "Ball about to drop" was an attempt to be clever, as dropping the ball is to make a mistake, and dropping the ball in roulette is to start the game.

As for gambling odds, they are stated as (payout) to (bet). In the case of Fireblade, a bet of $2 will get you back your $2 plus $1. The odds are only tangentially related to the mathematical probability of a thing actually happening. For example, a typical roulette wheel has 38 spaces (1-36, 0 and 00) but the payout on a correct number is 35-1.

EDIT: I see I made a mistake, I should have used a dash(-) instead of a colon (:) when stating the betting odds. Oops.

[raistlin34]

I guess such a primitive device can hardly contain so much digital sass.

[Rasayana]

(snipping out previous thingies)

I am sorry I confused you. I was writing in the style of a roulette dealer cajoling customers to place bets. "Go off" would be a display of anger with or without physical violence. "Ball about to drop" was an attempt to be clever, as dropping the ball is to make a mistake, and dropping the ball in roulette is to start the game.

As for gambling odds, they are stated as (payout) to (bet). In the case of Fireblade, a bet of $2 will get you back your $2 plus $1. The odds are only tangentially related to the mathematical probability of a thing actually happening. For example, a typical roulette wheel has 38 spaces (1-36, 0 and 00) but the payout on a correct number is 35-1.

EDIT: I see I made a mistake, I should have used a dash(-) instead of a colon (:) when stating the betting odds. Oops.

I really appreciate the joke. I like that it had multiple layers. =)

I don't think that I am confused. Maybe just a little.
I know that the house or the bookie usually set things up in such a way that they always win in the long run. That's why I, at the bottom of my post, wondered if anyone could make calculations outside of what you would expect in a casino.

Besides "gambling odds", like you describes with the roulette, "odds" have a direct mathematical relationship with probabilities. If you meant that Fireblade was a safe bet, then the odds would have been 2:1 rather than 1:2 for the proposition "Fireblade is going to be the first to go off". Besides that, it was really helpful for me to know that betting can be stated as (payout) to (bet). My calculations did of course not take that into account. [EDIT: Odds of 1:2 (p=1/2) would actually also imply Fireblade as a safe bet compared to all the Loroi having equal chance of 1:7 (p = 1/8)]

I appreciate that the cajoling was part of the joke, and that the numbers don't have to make sense. I do however find the problem interesting as an exercise, and have spent some time working out the problems I posed at the bottom of my previous post.

What I am ultimately after is to consolidate two or more players different expectations on random events into a bet which all players agree to as "fair", without using a house which would take overhead, commission, or anything like that. In that consolidation, each player would declare his or her estimated odds or probabilities for each possible event, and that a "fair dealer" (an algorithm) would calculate how much each player should contribute to the pot, and how the pot should be shared between winners. I might write a little python script for it, if I don't lose interest.

[Rasayana]

Chess champions aren't known for their good social skills. A pretty face could fish herself out quite a lot of information.

As for the chess part, he have just been warned not to trust the Loroi. The reasonable thing to do would be to exercise caution. He could of course disregard the warning out of cheer impudence. I doubt that ass well. His whole situation is extremely serious. I'll guess we will see.

As for the part on a pretty face part, it kinda goes both ways. Alex comes from an environment where he regularly works with people of the opposite sex, while the Loroi seldom interact with males. I don't expect that it is in Loroi culture for females to utilize their feminine charm to fish out much else than good will from a male.

[icekatze]

hi hi

Construct: "Don't trust them."
Alex: "Got anything to back that up?"
Construct: "Um... trust me?"

Well, Tempo did already suggest that the various members of the Union have different interests, and would want to use Alex for their own interests.

[Rasayana]

Sorry if you have all gone over this in the past, especially in forum post referring to the the first time Alex dealt with the pocket historian (approx pages 154-158).

What information can we assume that the pocket historian have on humanity and Alex?
The location of earth? A (more or less plausible) confirmation on a peaceful human mission?

Files on Alex, such as letters of recommendation for and against him? If so, is the pocket Historian making assumptions as to what possible social pitfalls Alex should be warned of based on 1) human nature, 2) Alex documented tendencies towards impudence, and/or 3) more general concerns of which different races tend to lose sight of their own interests?

Even if the Historian seems to adapt a human sense of humor, the Historian doesn't itself seem like a very humorous being. Any joke, or insult, directed at Alex doesn't quite seem like something done for the amusement of the Historian. I think it more seems like cold calculated manipulation. As for point 3 above, the Historian might very well be familiar with how friendly intentions can turn to betrayal, as the Loroi have experienced with "neutrals".
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qump1X6OrEc&t=15s
It's true as it might be that friendly smiles, and lip-service, is not wise to put your faith in. Story-wise though, when Alex appeal to his word of honor (and we know it's true), it attests to an irrational aspect of human nature which is of some importance of how we make decisions. I think that the Historian might be bad at gauging how important it may be for humans, and Loroi, to act in an honorable way or seeing that someone else does so.

... Does the Historian have an *actual* sense of humor?

Also, is it just me or have Alex kept the Loroi in the dark regarding how love rank ensign is? During the attack on the Bellarmine, he said that he was "not on the bridge" (page 60) as if he could usually be expected to be there (and not running repair works). Can we assume that Alex original rank is information which the Historian have, and the Loroi does not?